China

What's my opinion on the government opening free-trade negotiations with China? Well, we should at least consider it. We should look at what we'll get out of it and what we'll lose and whether we're morally comfortable with expanding links to an abhorrent regime.

Easy pros:

• It's difficult to see this as anything other than a boon for our agricultural sector and for consumers
• We can use the negotiations to press for improvements in human rights and labour standards, particularly in the area of forced labour and unionization.
• Its poking a giant stick in the eye of the United States.

Easy cons:

• It will be bad for the manufacturing sector - and contrary to the beliefs of neo-classical economists, the workers who lose their jobs will not go off to the country and work on farms
• The Chinese are authoritarian wankers
• It will stop us from doing the right thing and recognising Taiwan.

We should also recognise that this is not really about trade, but politics. What the Chinese really want from us is not access to our markets, but our "endorsement" that they are ready to fully join the international trading community. New Zealand has a reputation as a consistent supporter of multilateralism and free-trade and a member in good standing of the international community. Merely agreeing to talk about an FTA allows China to point to us and say "New Zealand thinks we're OK"; actually signing one gives them ammunition to use in negotiations with other nations. That's incredibly valuable to them, and we should not sell our reputation lightly.