Thoughts on the Alliance

There's been much coverage over the weekend of the "disintegration" of the Alliance, following the decision of its former leaders not to stand for office. But having read Span's take on the matter, I'm not sure that it's a disintegration so much as an opportunity for rebirth. The outgoing leadership had essentially lost interest in the party, seeing the Maori Party and the Greens as more credible left-wing vehicles. Under these circumstances, it's appropriate that they move on and allow others with greater commitment to take their place.

Unfortunately, commitment does not equal success, and the odds are against the Alliance making a comeback. MMP is effectively stacked to prevent new parties from gaining a foothold; the 5% threshhold is a signficant barrier, and creates a self-fulfilling prophecy - people won't vote for small parties because they have no chance of getting in (which is why we should ditch it). Which means that the Alliance contesting the list raises the prospect of a potentially vital 2 - 3% of the left vote disappearing into oblivion, or even of them taking the Greens with them. And as a left-wing voter, that's the last thing I want. Fortunately, the Alliance seems to realise that, and hopefully will be willing to endorse another left-wing party if they don't think they're going to make it.

Which really means that the Alliance's hopes lie in mounting a credible campaign for an electorate. They've done it before - Laila Harre made a good run in Waitakere in 1999, and Sandra Lee won a seat under FPP - but its still a big ask. And I can't imagine Labour stepping aside to let them in. Still, with the right candidate, in the right electorate, they might be able to make it...

The real problem, however, is pointed out by Just Left: the lack of a niche. When the Alliance was founded, Labour had clearly abandoned its left-wing principles, allowing a large amount of room for parties to the left of them. Now that Labour seems to have rediscovered its roots somewhat, there is less space to occupy. It's difficult even to come up with a killer issue on which to campaign - employment law has been fixed, the government is rebuilding state services, and has ended privatisations. A party to the left of Labour now simply represents "more" rather than a genuinely different approach. And I'm simply not sure that that's enough to get a party without much of a public profile back into Parliament...