Election day has always felt like a holiday to me. Not as much as Halloween, but still a holiday. And despite some worries last night (involving thunder, lightning, and hailstones the size of marbles), the weather has turned out reasonably well.
So, I'm going to enjoy the sun for a bit, vote, then go to Wellington to watch the results. And no matter which way it turns out, democracy will be the winner on the day.
Let's just hope Winston doesn't turn it into a game of two halves!
ReplyDelete50-49-7-6-4-3-2-1
ReplyDelete"Natural" blocks are 61-61, neither can put foward a speaker and pass a confidence vote.
1: Labour could easily drop back to 49 seats on specials, but the difference would almost certainly go to a minor party (I don't know the equasion they use, and it's too late to look it up). No change.
2: If the greens don't make 4.5% on specials they're gone; and that'll leave National, NZF, and United Future in the clear as a centre-right conservative government.
3: If Winston offers support on supply and everyone votes issue by issue it's a center-left government with Labour-Green-NZF on supply and a new pastiche for every vote.
That'd be fun, but another three years of headaches for Helen. 8]
4: National could offer up a speaker to avoid a new election; might be a smart move, leave the mess to destroy itself and take the easy win at the next election.
And to think, National could've cruised this by stealing as few as 1% of Labours voters and leaving the tax-cut crowd with ACT and the immigration crowd with NZF. Hah!
Voters registered is up. Voters actually voting is not as high as I'd want. I was kinda hoping for a world record here, but it looks like it'll be a modest turn out (unless the specials are rampant).
ReplyDelete