Retribution

Earlier in the year, in a post on strategic voting, I suggested that left-wing voters use their electorate votes to express their displeasure with errant Labour MPs who had voted against civil unions, the relationships act, or otherwise moved the government towards the right. This is premised on the fact that in most cases, the electorate vote does not matter. Who governs is determined by the party vote, and the electorate vote is simply a way of shuffling the faces. Or in this case, signalling disapproval for the way a candidate has voted.

There are two major impediments to doing this. The first is that most of Labour's traitors have large majorities, so the best that can be done is to send a signal, nothing more. The flip side of this, though, is that many are also not on the party list - meaning that if they are de-elected, they are gone for good, and someone else (most likely a liberal, given the makeup of Labour's list) gets to take their place. The other problem is that in most cases, their most credible opposition is no better; most National candidates are conservatives who oppose legal equality, and those who aren't aren't exactly shouting it to the four winds. While there is IMHO a clear case for voting for a liberal National candidate over a conservative Labour one, it's a lot murkier voting for a conservative over a conservative. This is really a decision that is up to the individual; those who really hate Labour's conservatives and want to see them de-seated should hold their nose and vote for the National candidate (unless they are remarkably worse), while those who just want to send a message should cast their candidate vote for a more liberal candidate from a minor party. The party vote is of course a different matter: if you want a left-wing government, you need to vote for a left-wing party - meaning Labour, the Greens, or the Progressives.

The cleanest example of what I'm talking about is in Mangere, and I've blogged about it here: the incumbent, Taito Phillip Field, Labour's most conservative MP, is up against Clem Simich, who is one of National's few liberals. Comparing their respective voting records ought to make it clear why liberals in the seat should support Simich. Field has an enormous majority, but reducing it would hopefully send a message. Those who can't stomach voting for a National candidate should consider the Alliance's Len Richards, or the Greens' Muamua Strickson-Pua, both of whom have good liberal views.

Other seats are a lot murkier. Here's the shit-list, with links to their voting records:

• Tamaki-Makaurau: John Tamihere. Not only did he oppose civil unions, he's also a cat-neglecting bastard. Fortunately, it looks as if he is going to be deseated (and he has no list spot as backup), and his opponent, Pita Sharples, has said he supported civil unions.
• Waimakariri: Clayton Cosgrove. This is a semi-urban, semi-rural seat, and so it may swing significantly against Labour - and Cosgrove isn't on the list, so if he's out, he's gone (and good riddance too). Unfortunately, I know next to nothing about Kate Wilkinson, the National candidate - but can she be any worse?
• New Plymouth Harry Duynhoven - opposed civil unions, but at least voted for the relationships bill. He has a massive majority, and is well ahead in the polls, so voting against him would be a signal, nothing more.
• West Coast-Tasman: Damien O'Connor. It's a relatively close race, and O'Conner looks to have his majority substantially eroded. National's Chris Auchinvole doesn't seem much better, but would at least vote for the gender-identity amendment to the Human Rights Act. If you can't stomach him, the Green candidate is probably a good bet.
• Manukau East: Ross Robertson. Again a large majority with no list spot, so the best that can be achieved is to signal displeasure. Unfortunately I don't know anything about the national candidate, but there are Green and Progressive alternatives available.

If you live in Mt Roskill, I'd also suggest voting against Phil Goff for his consistent erosion of civil liberties, and if you're in Dunedin South, against David Benson-Pope for his outrageous comments on Ahmed Zaoui - though both have high list spots and are likely to get in regardless.

If anyone has any further polling data from these electorates, or information about the opposition candidates and their views, then please post a link in the comments.