Azerbaijan went to the polls today, and while early results show the ruling party winning by a comfortable margin, there are worries that this is another sham election. In the leadup to the poll, opposition parties were harassed by police, and several opposition leaders were detained, while Human Rights Watch accused the Azeri government of using systematic intimidation and violence in an effort to influence the result. But there are also concerns about the conduct of the election itself: an independent exit poll showed the government failing to win a majority, one of the largest opposition parties reported stuffed ballot boxes, multiple voting, and intimidation on election day, and early word from the OSCE is that the elections "did not look good". The OSCE will be presenting their report tomorrow, and if it accuses the government of fraud, there will almost certainly be protests. Given that the government has declared that they will not allow a Ukraine-style people's revolution, that could be a recipe for trouble...
A tricky game for the foreign powers. They must have a government stable enough and with enough populist gloss, but not too popular, thinking things like taking control of the pipeline currently being built or reclaiming Nagorno-Karabakh. Maybe it will take a bit more than bags of cash and good TV coverage to get the right looking government.
ReplyDeleteWell, it is not as if any government would ever announce that it would permit a people-power revolution. The people will just have to make it for themselves. Let's just hope they can pull it off without any bloodshed.
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