North Korea claims to have tested a nuclear weapon.
I admit it, I'm scared - not so much over the North Koreans (despite allegations to the contrary, they're not mad - just very, very insecure), but the berserk response this could provoke from the US. Or from Japan's new nationalist Prime Minister. The last thing I want to see is Japan abandoning its pacifist constitution and opposition to nuclear weapons to get itself an independent deterrant.
On the plus side, this means Iran is probably no longer in the crosshairs.
still if japan gets itself a few thousand nukes you don't have to worry about them - despite reports - they are not crazy either, just a tiny bit insecure.
ReplyDeleteYou just have to worry about nth korea doing somthing cheeky and spooking them.
NK may not be mad, but its leader is - as would anyone raised effectively as the son of a god.
ReplyDeleteAnd the problem with NK is there is no-one who can give honest advice to a mad leader without fear for his own life.
Some sort of war is probably inevitable within a decade, and I suspect we will see North Korea use nukes.
DPF: Yeah, but it seems to be a relatively sane kind of mad. For example, knowing that when threatened by a nuclear power, your best course of action is to get yourself a deterrant and delivery system ASAP.
ReplyDeleteI agree, it makes the world a much less safe place. At the same time, I think the South Koreans are going to be doing their best to avoid any war,and not just because they'll be the ones doing the dying - they've been working towards rapproachment with the North, and eventual peaceful reunification. And if they get their way (if the Dear Leader chokes on some kimchi, for example), hey, they get nukes now too (which means they won't have to take shit from Japan anymore).
The last thing I want to see is the US go psycho and start a war over this. Yes, North Korea has The Bomb. It's a Bad Thing, but there's nothing that can be done about it now; best to get on with coping. By for example explicitly extending their deterrant umbrella to cover South Korea and Japan, just as they did for Western Europe during the Cold War. MAD may be ugly, but it works.
Dam , I hadn't used the expression "anti-American Left" for a while and was hoping this would be a good opportunity. Until I read Idiot's last bit -
ReplyDelete"By for example explicitly extending their deterrant umbrella to cover South Korea and Japan, just as they did for Western Europe during the Cold War."
I take it "their" refers to the US - "ugly, but it works"?
Something overlooked in all this pro- and anti- US business is the matter of the NK population. Should the US and others really be in the business of giving security guaranntees, ie ensuring the regimes survival, to such a regime?
> And if they get their way (if the Dear Leader chokes on some kimchi, for example), hey, they get nukes now too (which means they won't have to take shit from Japan anymore).
ReplyDeleteI find those posters their children made for a school thing about wiping out the Japanese a bit creepy.
Like most big brother litle brother relationships its the little brother who is the one who is most twisted on the inside.
But yes - surely the end game is sth Korea being given nth Korea.
> for example explicitly extending their deterrent umbrella to cover South Korea and Japan, just as they did for Western Europe during the Cold War. MAD may be ugly, but it works.
I don’t think it is a sustainable strategy for the US to pick up the tab for defending people who don’t need defending. Worse yet it will become unstable and difficult to dismantle when the US becomes weaker.
China Russia Japan and sth Korea can all defeat nth Korea now.
For sure nth Korea can do a hell of a lot of damage - but there wouldn't be much left of nth Korea if they started a war against any of their neighbors - particularly a nuclear one. Their opponent would not even need to use nukes.
In particular China should front up and take some responsibility in their own sphere of influence.
This is interesting
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kimsoft.com/korea/whang1.htm
"North Korea does not plan simply to occupy the South to unify the country as it sees South Korea as an enemy, so it will pursue a policy of eradication in what it calls a 'merciless class struggle'."
former secretary for international affairs of the North Korean Workers Party, Hwang Jang-yop
from 1996 so - out of date.... I hope...
On the plus side, this means Iran is probably no longer in the crosshairs.
ReplyDeleteOn the minus side, both Iran and North Korea have decided the UN can go fuck itself. And you're worried about Japan? At least they have a constitutional democracy to change, as opposed to a couple of lunatic personality cults who are quite certain the neighbourhood would be vastly improved if the neighbours were dead.
Of course China may well take action against NK...but demand a quid pro quo....Taiwan.
ReplyDeleteArgh, if the ruling elite of the DPRK isn't "mad" then by crickey, who is? How about "bad" then?
ReplyDeleteIt's a worry.
As far as pure lunacy goes, the DPRK as a country is off the scale. As mentioned, it has a leader who is seen as an infallable demi-god, it survives through Western aid, yet spends its money enforcing anti-Western/Japanese/South Korean propaganda. I am far more worried about what a nutjob like Dear Leader is capable of doing than I am about how the rest of the world will respond to this test.
ReplyDelete"On the minus side, both Iran and North Korea have decided the UN can go fuck itself. And you're worried about Japan? At least they have a constitutional democracy to change, as opposed to a couple of lunatic personality cults who are quite certain the neighbourhood would be vastly improved if the neighbours were dead."
ReplyDeleteCraig - that's pathetic. Go and read a little background on Iran (start at Juan Cole) before you start lumping NK and Iran's political systems into one basket. Next you'll be chanting the "Axis of Evil" mantra with a straight face..
Oh come on, Huskynut. Even a cursory reader of the NZ blog comments lists would quickly see that Mr. Ranapia is far more informed and well read than yourself. And reading the lamentable Juan Cole is as likely to inform you as reading Ann Coulter is. Both are sectarian idiots, crusading on behalf of their own political agendas. next you'll be recommending Robert Fisk.
ReplyDeleteTo be honest, I think the US will bark at NK but not bite (that is all it ever has done these past few years in regards to NK).
ReplyDeleteFor better or for worse, I don't think this will distract Bush & Co. from bullying the middle east one bit.
The sad thing is that Iran & NK gaining (or seeking to gain) nukes is very troubling, but Bush is not a pragmatist, but an ideologue & that keeps him from dealing more realistically & pragmatically with these situations.
I'm just hoping the Chinese & the Russians will put on even more pressure on NK to stop.
~ Josh
Of course the US won't attack North Korea. They have a huge army and (now demonstrably) functional nukes. That gives immunity to regime change.
ReplyDeleteI'd imagine Iran will redouble it's nuclear development efforts.
123 - I'm sure Craig would prefer to manage his own defence.
ReplyDeleteAs for Cole, if you'd sooner trust Reuters translations of Ahmenijad's speeches (I'm sure they have such a highly-paid depth of translation talent to draw upon) than Juan's, that's your lookout.
For me, when I read Ahmenijad:
a - was mistranslated in the phrase that became the catchcry Craig is referring to, and
b - recently gave a major policy speech discussing solutions to the Middle East problems (including democratic elections) and saying Iran would launch no attacks on other countries (as they haven't for a couple of centuries, which subsequently wound up reported in WaPo under the headline "Iran threatens US", it's pretty obvious we are witnessing the making of another convenient made-for-TV ogre.
Completely *unlike* the Dear Leader who is just a plain nutjob. OTOH, there's plenty of nutjobs wandering around Wellington but I don't go out of my way to poke them with sticks and then act all shocked and aggrieved when they go predictably ape, either..
Oh, and there is *no-one* like Ann Coulter.. the Right have a truly unique specimen there and you're welcome to keep her..
This nutcase seems to be North korea's resident supporter in NZ:
ReplyDeletehttp://readingthemaps.blogspot.com/2006/10/for-reciprocal-disarmament.html
have any of you people given any thought to why the Korean peninsula ended up in this state? or done any serious reading of the long history?
ReplyDeletea lot of throw-away name calling doesn't really prove anything (excepting possibly the name-callers' lack of intelligence).
The only good thing I can see from this test is that it's got all the other members of the 6 party talks on the same page.
ReplyDelete> I just cannot imagine why?
ReplyDeletethere is always a reason for anything. Nth korea takes action because of its environment and the Us takes action because of it's environemnt. You get lovely little arguments when people on both sides assume that the other side has free will and theirs doesn't.
As to nth korea being mad - I suggest pissing off China is a VERY bad idea and that seems to be exactly what they have achieved.
On the other hand I agree with stef I think its a good thing to have China and US on the same side (in particular), may there be more of it.
One day we may be thanking nth kroea for making a sacrificial lamb of itself.
otoh, maybe the irrationality card is a little overplayed..:
ReplyDeletehttp://msnbc.msn.com/id/15175633/site/newsweek/
huskynut,
ReplyDeleteI'm shocked at you, SHOCKED!
You've sunken to the pointless **reading of background information on this situation** rather than engaging in constructive name calling.
What good can come of such reckless and thoughtless behaviour.