Too close to call?

It's D-Day for the Sale of Liquor (Youth Alcohol Harm Reduction: Purchase Age) Amendment Bill [PDF], and the vote is reportedly still too close to call. According to the Herald, its 43 to 34 against, with 13 favouring a split age and 28 unknowns. According to Dominion-Post, its 48 to 35, 12 splits and 26 unknowns. While this seems to favour those wanting to keep it 18, the split age faction will vote for the second reading, so the numbers are much closer than they appear (a lead according to the Herald, and a tie according to the Dom-Post).

At this stage, all we can do is cross our fingers and hope. Though emailing or calling some undecided politicians at the last minute probably wouldn't hurt (contact details and phone numbers here [PDF]). We really have left it rather late on this, which suggests keeping a much closer eye on the Order paper and "interesting" bills in future.

You can tune in and listen to parliament's webfeed here. As for when, it really depends on how long they take on the business ahead of it on the Order Paper. Parliament starts at 2pm, Question Time takes one to one and a half hours, followed by an hour of general debate - so business starts at 4 or 4:30. First up is the Rotorua Library Trust Fund Variation Bill, an uncontentious local bill, which might simply be passed by leave rather than debated (it happens with local bills). If this happens, then allowing two hours for the 100 MP Bill (which will get a thorough working over) means debate on the drinking age will start 7:30 - 8ish and the vote will be taken two hours later. If the Rotorua bill is debated, then push those times back by half an hour or so (few people spoke on the first reading, and I don't think they'll show any more enthusiasm). Note that this might push the finish time back beyond 10pm, which means a final vote won't be taken until the 22nd. But at least that would give us more time to work on those MPs who have not yet stated a position.