The same old National Party

Earlier in the week, I noted that John Key's "new" approach to welfare was just the same old punitive, beneficiary-bashing, demonise-the-poor approach taken by Don Brash and Jenny Shipley, sugar-coated and wrapped in vague platitudes about "opportunity" and a "fair go" in an effort to disguise it. Rather than representing a change of direction, Key is continuing the same old policies; the only difference is the marketing.

The same could be said of his approach to the Maori seats. Don Brash famously promised that they would be gone by lunchtime if he ever became Prime Minister. Key - who declared on becoming leader that he believed in "a tolerant and inclusive New Zealand" - has pushed that back until tea. Under a National government, the Maori seats would be abolished in 2014 - regardless of whether Maori want to retain them. That gurgling noise you're hearing about now is the sound of National's relationship with the Maori Party - and hence its chances of being in government in 2008 - going down the toilet.

National may be doing this for ideological reasons, or they may be doing it simply to create a bargaining chip to surrender to the Maori Party with great reluctance in coalition negotiations - but if they're doing the latter then they are making a mistake and showing that they once again have failed to adapt to MMP. Ten years in, coalition building is not about the sort of electoral one-night stand seen in MMP's first term. Instead it is about building strong cooperative relationships between coalition partners. This is why Labour has not reinstated the carbon tax despite having the numbers to do it: while Dunne and Peters would be unlikely to topple the government over such a move, it would poison the relationship and make it more difficult for the parties to work together in other areas. Doing that before the relationship even starts simply to create a stronger bargaining position means it is unlikely ever to get off the ground, particularly if there are other alternatives available. And National cannot rely on being so dominant in the polls that a labour-Green-Maori Party coalition is impossible.

As for the seats themselves, as I've said before, they are seen as a positive symbol of Maori mana and participation, and they have no more effect on electoral outcomes than any other electorate. And while the recent Maori electoral option did not lead to the creation of another Maori seat, neither did it show a wholesale rush to abandon the seats in favour of the general list (in fact, quite the opposite - far more Maori signed up for the Maori roll than the general one). Under such circumstances, there's no doubt in my mind that they should be retained, at least until Maori decide otherwise.