An ugly compromise on India

The government has bowed to US pressure and reluctantly endorsed the US plan to allow transfer of civilian nuclear technology to India. DPF is trying to spin it as a backdown, but the plain fact is that we got what we wanted. As Phil Goff's pre-negotiation comments make clear, New Zealand's primary concerns were around nuclear weapons, non-proliferation, and testing. As India refuses to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty or the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty for stupid nationalistic reasons, the goal was to use the deal to bring India's nuclear industry within the non-proliferation regime, and for the deal to be pulled if India resumed nuclear testing. The Herald summarised these views as:

New Zealand had wanted:

• Action to be taken should India resume nuclear testing;
• For India to sign up to an International Atomic Energy Agency protocol extending its monitoring powers;
• A review of the exemption.

New Zealand also raised concerns about transfer of sensitive technologies related to enrichment and reprocessing.

The final agreement [PDF] includes commitments by India to agree to a stronger IAEA inspection regime for its civilian nuclear facilities, to take various steps to prevent the spread of nuclear technologies, and to continue its moratorium on nuclear testing. While the latter is "voluntary", post-negotiation statements issued by several NSG members (including Japan and Germany) made it clear they would pull the plug if India conducted further weapons tests, and that India's compliance with its commitments would be regularly reviewed (there's more analysis from the Arms Control Association here).

So, we got what we wanted. It's still an ugly compromise, in that it undermines the NPT, but given that the only non-participants at this stage already have nuclear weapons, I think the horse has well and truly bolted on that front. Meanwhile, it looks like the Indian government, having lied to its Parliament about what the deal entailed, will have some explaining to do to its people, and may be in for some interesting times. But that's their problem...

Update: Adding Naughts (who has been following this issue for some time) disagrees here.