National likes to talk up its credentials as a good economic manager. But it is failing on the most basic economic deliverable: jobs. Just six months ago, its budget predicted lacklusture employment growth, with unemployment not expected to drop below 5% until 2017. But it turns out its worse than that: having declined to the appallingly high figure of 5.5% in September 2014, unemployment has been heading back up. And its going to get a lot worse:
Unemployment is forecast to climb above 6 per cent, with record migration boosting the workforce as the number of new jobs being created slows.
On Wednesday official figures from Statistics New Zealand are expected to show that the economy created an estimated 10,000 additional jobs in the three months to September 30, a 0.4 per cent increase in employment.
But economists believe a greater number entered the New Zealand workforce looking for jobs, as migrants - both Kiwi and foreign nationals - boosted the working age population.
Some economists warn unemployment could come close to 7 per cent late near year or in early 2017, a figure not seen since 2012.
A glance at the graph here puts that in context. 6% is recession-level unemployment. And its basicly looking like a permanent feature under National. Their economy is a jobless one, structured to keep wages down and profits high. Which is great for rich people like Jon Key, but not so good for ordinary kiwis. But since when has National cared about them?