He Pou a Rangi / Climate Change Commission has just released its Review of the 2050 emissions target including whether emissions from international shipping and aviation should be included. After noting that there have been significant changes since the target was originally set in 2019 - stronger evidence that we need to do more, stronger international action, and greater projected impacts on the world and Aotearoa specifically - they recommend that the headline 2050 target be strengthened from net-zero to negative 20 million tons (meaning: we must not only reduce and offset all our emissions, but also offset 20 million tons a year more than we emit). They also recommend a strengthening of the methane target band from a 24 to 47 percent reduction (from 2017 levels) to a 35 to 47% reduction. At the top end this almost turns our "net zero long-lived plus variable methane reduction" into a true all-gases net-zero target (we'd still be emitting ~0.2 MT net, which is well into the margin of error). Oh, and international shipping and aviation should be included. And they've done all this because they think its realistic and achievable. Not only should we move faster to reduce emissions - but we can actually do it! More importantly, we have been doing it - or were, until the current government repealed virtually all effective policy.
Its a slap in the face to National, which systematically dismantled our climate change policies, and which has just released its own strapped-chicken review of the methane target to support its position that we should do less. The problem for the government is that He Pou a Rangi's review has statutory force: the government must publicly respond to it, and the statutory presumption is clearly that the Minister will follow the advice of Parliament's expert body. If they do anything other than agree to fully adopt the recommended target, they must give reasons for any departure. And in such a case, you can expect the decision to be very closely scrutinised by the courts. OTOH, the only way to amend the targets is by legislation, and I'm not sure that the courts can actually order parliament to pass a law. But they can certainly say the Minister has acted irrationally and unlawfully in not recommending to cabinet that it do so.
