Back in November, He Pou a Rangi provided the government with formal advice on the domestic contribution to our next Paris target. Not what the target should be, but what we could realistically achieve, by domestic action alone, without resorting to offshore mitigation. Their answer was startling: depending on exactly how it is measured, He Pou a Rangi's central projection was for an emissions reduction of 55% to 60% by domestic action alone, with ambitious policy able to push that to 70% to 75%. Which means its rather disappointing to see National's announced 2035 target:
The Government has today announced New Zealand’s second international climate target under the Paris Agreement, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says.The latter of course is pure bullshit. He Pou a Rangi has also provided advice at various stages on what a fair target would be, assessed by various frameworks such as equal per capita emissions, ability to pay, historic responsibility for warming, and the right to sustainable development. Under all of these measures, we need to be doing much more than we are at present (which is why their latest advice recommends strengthening our 2050 target). National has instead shrugged its shoulders, and gone "yeah, nah". It is beyond irresponsible - it is profoundly immoral and selfish, and arguably criminal. And the current cabinet, who have set this target, are very clearly betting that there won't be any criminal trials for ecocide in their lifetimes. Given the way things are going, that seems... courageous. Or maybe just shortsighted, unimaginative, and stupid.New Zealand will reduce emissions by 51 to 55 per cent compared to 2005 levels, by 2035.
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“Meeting this target will mean we are doing our fair share towards reducing the impact of climate change, while enabling New Zealand to be stronger and thrive in the face of a changing climate.
Of course, they won't be the government forever, and we've been here before: in 2015 the then-National government set a similar "yeah, nah" target of a 30% reduction in emissions by 2030. So the next government simply had to strengthen it. The next government will have to do the same, if it wants to retain any international credibility whatsoever. And the by-then-opposition National Party will no doubt accuse them of doing too much - just as they did last time.
It would be nice if one of our major political parties wasn't trying to play such transparent and childish games with our most pressing policy challenge, but that's just who they are: childish little sociopaths. We deserve better than that. And the sooner we vote them out and get a responsible government, the better.