Thursday, February 13, 2025



United States of betrayal

As expected, Donald Trump just threw Ukraine under the bus, demanding that it accept Russia's illegal theft of land, while ruling out any future membership of NATO. Its a colossal betrayal, which effectively legitimises Russia's invasion, while laying the groundwork for the next one. But Trump is apparently fine with that too.

That's bad, but then it got worse, with US Defence Secretary (and chief drunk) Pete Hegseth effectively withdrawing the US from NATO, and telling Europe that it would not defend it:

Donald Trump’s newly appointed defence secretary told allies on his first international trip that the US was no longer “primarily focused” on European security and that Europe would have to take the lead in defending Ukraine.

[...]

The Pentagon chief said he was “here today to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe”, though the language was notably toned down from a draft briefed in advance to the press.

I'm not exactly a fan of NATO, given its recent use as American expeditionary foederatii. But I'm willing to acknowledge that its original mission of deterring war in Europe was a necessary evil during the cold war, and one that has unfortunately - thanks to Putin - become necessary again. So the US basically abandoning it, and telling Putin "go ahead; invade the Baltics!", is terrible. It makes the world a much less safe place. It also tells the world that America's word can't be trusted on anything, even things which have been considered absolutely crucial for 75 years, and so no-one should make any deals with them - but that really sounds like an "America" problem now.

But its terrible for another reason too. Because NATO served another important purpose: nuclear non-proliferation. As long as NATO members felt that the US would defend them, including by deterring nuclear attack, they did not need to develop their own nuclear deterrent. And now that the US has said "we will not deter for you", that sets a very unpleasant precedent. Putin's invasion of Ukraine - a country which voluntarily gave up nuclear weapons - sent a very clear message that if countries with aggressive neighbours wanted to be safe, they needed nukes. US support for Ukraine (and for NATO) may have kept a lid on that. But now that that support has been withdrawn, and no country can rely on US promises, there is a clear incentive for those countries to get their own bombs. And that means not just Ukraine and Poland, but also Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan.

Nuclear weapons are dangerous. A world with more nuclear-armed states is a more dangerous world, with more trigger points for nuclear war, and a greater chance of nuclear famine. And the incentives set by nuclear weapons, to strike before your enemy can deter, leads to greater instability (just look at the last twenty years duelling between the US/Israel and Iran). So by betraying its allies and abandoning its commitments, the US has made the world a much more dangerous place for everybody. They've committed us to nuclear proliferation, regional arms races, and global instability. And as Eisenhower said, that has a cost: "every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed".

So, fuck Trump, and fuck America. And fuck their boss Putin, for starting this shitfest in the first place. They're wrecking the world. The quicker they're all run out of office, the better.