After the war, the ethnic cleansing

Great. Now that the war is officially over, South Ossetian forces are engaging in ethnic cleansing, looting and burning Georgian villages. From Human Rights Watch:

Human Rights Watch researchers in South Ossetia on August 12, 2008, saw ethnic Georgian villages still burning from fires set by South Ossetian militias, witnessed looting by the militias, and learned firsthand of the plight of ethnic Ossetian villagers who had fled Georgian soldiers during the Georgian-Russian conflict over the breakaway region of South Ossetia.

In South Ossetia, Human Rights Watch researchers traveling on the evening of August 12 on the road from the town of Java to Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia, witnessed terrifying scenes of destruction in four villages that used to be populated exclusively by ethnic Georgians. According to the few remaining local residents, South Ossetian militias that were moving along the road looted the Georgian villages and set them on fire. Human Rights Watch saw numerous vehicles carrying South Ossetian militia members, as well as Russian military transports moving in the direction of Tskhinvali.

Numerous houses in the villages of Kekhvi, Nizhnie Achaveti, Verkhnie Achaveti and Tamarasheni had been burnt down over the last day – Human Rights Watch researchers saw the smoldering remnants of the houses and household items. The villages were virtually deserted, with the exception of a few elderly and incapacitated people who stayed behind either because they were unable to flee or because they were trying to save their belongings and cattle.

And the Guardian:

Villages in Georgia were being burned and looted as Russian tanks and soldiers followed by "irregulars" advanced from the breakaway province of South Ossetia, eyewitnesses said today.

[...]

The tanks had passed through the village of Rekha at about 11.20am local time. "Behind them (say eyewitnesses) is a whole column of irregulars who locals say are Chechens, Cossacks and Ossetians.

"Eyewitnesses say they are looting, killing and burning. These irregulars have killed three people and set fire to villages. They have been taking away young boys and girls," said Harding, watching smoke rise from another village, Karaleti.

As the occupying power, the Russians have a duty to prevent these atrocities. Instead, in some areas at least, they seem to be enabling them.

(And again, this should be another reminder to national leaders not to start wars. Because when you do, you let all sorts of ugly djinn out of the bottle...)

The war is over

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has ordered a halt to military operations against Georgia. The war is over. I'm sure civilians in Georgia and South Ossetia will be breathing a sigh of relief.

The cost of Saakashvili's mad gamble has been around 200 soldiers and 100 civilians on the Georgian side, about 50 Russians, and around 2,000 Ossetian civilians, mostly killed when Georgian forces levelled the capital Tskhinvali with artillery. The latter amounts to around 3% of South Ossetia's population.

Russia has established the facts on the ground, and will be able to dictate the terms of any peace. There is unlikely to be a return to the status quo ante. Instead, Georgia will likely have to accept autonomy for Ossetia, and likely Abkhazia as well - exactly the opposite of what they were trying to achieve. Given how predictable Russian intervention was, you have to wonder why Georgia started the war in the first place. Did they think they could have it over and done with in a day, and present the world with a fait accompli? Or did they seriously think the world (and particularly the US) would come to their defence if they started a war, and that this prospect would deter the Russians? Historians will have fun arguing over that. But whatever the answer, 2,500 people are dead because some nationalistic blowhard decided to play with his war toys. And that's not something the world should forgive him for.

Saakashvili's reckless gamble

Over the weekend, Georgia's nationalist President Mikheil Saakashvili decided he would settle his country's ongoing dispute with separatists in South Ossetia by invading the region and levelling its capital with artillery. As a result, almost 2,000 people - 2 to 3% of South Ossetia's pre-war population - are estimated to be dead, 30,000 are homeless, and Georgia is now in a shooting war with Russia - a war it cannot possibly hope to win.

The latter was such a predictable outcome that you have to wonder what Saakashvili thought he would gain by escalating the conflict. Russia intervened to force a ceasefire during the first Ossetian conflict in 1992, and was ready to do so again. And as a result, a return to the status quo ante of de facto but unrecognised independence is now unlikely. Instead, Georgia's military assault may instead see South Ossetia and its other breakaway region, Abkhazia, both becoming independent statelets under Russian "protection". Which is exactly the opposite of what the Georgian government claimed to want. Whether they were blinded by nationalism or had delusions that their status as a potential member of NATO would deter Russian intervention is unclear, but either way, their reckless gamble has backfired, at a significant cost in human life - a cost which could have been avoided if they'd continued to talk rather than sending in the tanks. Stupid and immoral. The fact that they're doing it over a place which has even less people than Palmerston North simply makes it stupider.

Fortunately, Georgia now seems to realise it has lost, and is trying to back out down. And hopefully that means that no-one else is going to die for their insanity. But any fool can realise they would have been better off not fighting this war in the first place.

As for Russia, they've carefully stoked separatism in the region, and were clearly prepared for this sort of thing to happen at some stage, so they don't exactly have clean hands here. But the fact remains that they didn't start this, and they're not the ones levelling cities this time around. I don't like them, but the cold war narrative coming from the US of "evil Russians, beating up their smaller neighbours" seems just a little divorced from reality...