PiS off

Back in October, Poles threw out the Law and Justice (PiS) government in elections which saw record turnout. And now, after a failed last-ditch effort by PiS to retain control, the new coalition has finally taken power:

Donald Tusk has pledged to “chase away the darkness … chase away the evil” of eight divisive years of national-conservative rule, after Poland’s parliament voted to back his nomination as the country’s new prime minister.

[...]

In power since 2015, PiS has been accused of illegally eroding the rule of law, turning state media into propaganda outlets, rolling back minority rights and fomenting feuds with the EU, prompting Brussels to freeze tens of billions of euros of funds.

Tusk, who has promised to mend relations with the bloc and get the money released, is scheduled to address parliament on Tuesday, presenting his cabinet and laying out the government’s plans, before facing the formality of a confidence vote.

Besides rebuilding bridges with Brussels, Tusk’s campaign pledges included promising to allow abortion – subject to a near-total ban under PiS – until 12 weeks, declaring termination, IVF and contraception fundamental rights, and allowing civil partnerships for same-sex couples.

You know, behaving like a normal European country, rather than some authoritarian Catholic theocracy.

I don't expect Tusk's government to be perfect. But its basicly saved Poland from autocracy, and seems to be working in the right direction. Its unquestionably better than what came before. The job for Poles is to keep it that way, and avoid another authoritarian return.

Women win in Ohio

Last year, the Republican Supreme Court overturned the longstanding Roe v. Wade precedent, allowing Republican states to state banning abortion. But that isn't turning out how the Republicans planned: voters in Kansas and Kentucky have already rejected state constitutional bans, while Ohio voters have just added abortion rights to their state constitution:

Ohio voters have added the right to access abortion care to the state's constitution, NBC News projects — another major political victory for abortion-rights advocates in the nearly 17 months since the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade.

The passage of the Issue 1 ballot measure inserts language in the state constitution guaranteeing every person in Ohio the right “to one’s own reproductive medical treatment, including but not limited to abortion,” and barring the state from “burdening, penalizing or prohibiting” those rights — though it specifies that abortion will remain prohibited after the point a doctor judges a fetus would most likely survive birth, with exceptions to protect the woman’s life or health.

(They also voted to legalise marijuana, so they're ahead of Aotearoa on that...)

Somehow I don't think this was what Republicans had in mind when they said they wanted states - or voters - to decide. And it bodes well both for further referenda, and for overturning Republican political majorities.

Democracy wins in Poland

Poland has been on a nasty path for the last eight years, with the ruling "Law and Justice " Party becoming increasingly bigoted, authoritarian, and undemocratic. But they had an election over the weekend, and it looks like Polish voters have thrown their would-be tyrants out:

Opposition parties appear to have won enough votes in Poland's general election to oust the ruling right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) party, almost complete results show.

With more than 99% of votes counted, PiS led with 35.64%, while Donald Tusk's liberal Civic Coalition party had 30.48%.

But Mr Tusk is now most likely to be able to form a broad coalition.

That would end eight years of rule under PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski.

And all of this on a record turnout, with more young people voting than pensioners. I guess they wanted a future that wasn't just full of hate and resentment.

The new government will have a lot of work to do: restoring abortion rights, rebuilding relations with the EU, restoring the independence of the judiciary, public service, and state media (all of which are full of PiS cronies). But at least they have a chance to do it, and turn Poland back into a modern democratic state, rather than an authoritarian Kaczynski fiefdom.

Blowback on abortion

At the end of June, the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade, putting abortion rights in America under threat. The move was unpopular - abortion rights have had clear majority support for decades and only a tiny minority of religious bigots think it should be illegal in all circumstances - but Republican theocrats didn't care, and started enacting (or activating) abortion bans. One of these efforts was in Kansas, where Republicans ran a referendum to overturn a state supreme court ruling and remove abortion protection from the state constitution. Being Republicans, of course, they didn't want a fair vote - so they ran a physical vote parallel to the Republican Party primary (where Democrats and non-aligned voters wouldn't be voting), and pulled out all the usual scams to trick people into voting the way they wanted. And despite all that, they just had their arses handed to them:

Kansans secured a huge win for abortion rights in the US on Tuesday night when they voted to continue to protect abortion in the state constitution.

The race was called by a host of US groups like NBC News, the New York Times and Decision Desk HQ.

The move will be seen as huge a loss for the anti-abortion movement and a major win for abortion rights advocates across America, who will see the result as a bellwether for popular opinion.

And this is Kansas, about as red a state as you can get. If Kansas won't vote to eliminate abortion rights - by a margin of 60 - 40 - then it seems unlikely other states will if given the choice. And Republican legislators pushing for abortion bans may find themselves getting massacred at the ballot box come November.

Still digging

Over the weekend, the US Supreme Court followed through on its threat, and overturned Roe v. Wade, effectively outlawing abortion in much of the United States. People were outraged, in America and around the world. And in Aotearoa, this meant a lot of sudden questions for the National Party, which is led by a fundamentalist anti-abortionist, stuffed with fundamentalist anti-abortionist MPs, and which tends to take its lead from whatever crack the US Republicans are smoking this week. While National's fundy backbenchers celebrated the imposition of forced birth in America, Christopher Luxon desperately tried to backpedal on his past views and reassure the public that National had no intention of changing the law. Except that today, he's doubling down on being anti-abortion:

When asked about his views on Monday, he told Newshub he still has a pro-life stance.

"I acknowledge I have a pro-life stance at a personal level," he said. "Simon has his own views as do others in our Caucus. They should be free to express that but in this case, it was actually being misinterpreted as the National Party position and therefore it wasn't appropriate."

When asked what he thought about people who chose to have an abortion, Luxon reiterated his pro-life stance.

"As I said I have a pro-life stance. It's a very difficult and a very agonising decision," he said.

He is yet to clarify whether he still believes abortion is tantamount to murder despite Newshub asking early Monday morning.

Which rather casts doubt on all those prior "reassurances", doesn't it? But the real problem for Luxon is that, given that US conservatives have literally perjured themselves to gain power to impose theocracy, we just can't trust anything he says. Sure, Luxon says he won't change anything - but so did Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett. And we know how that turned out. We should not make the same mistake here.

Going full Gilead

Today's big news from America: the Supreme Court has reportedly voted to overturn Roe v. Wade:

The Supreme Court has voted to strike down the landmark Roe v. Wade decision, according to an initial draft majority opinion written by Justice Samuel Alito circulated inside the court and obtained by POLITICO.

The draft opinion is a full-throated, unflinching repudiation of the 1973 decision which guaranteed federal constitutional protections of abortion rights and a subsequent 1992 decision – Planned Parenthood v. Casey – that largely maintained the right. “Roe was egregiously wrong from the start,” Alito writes.

“We hold that Roe and Casey must be overruled,” he writes in the document, labeled as the “Opinion of the Court.” “It is time to heed the Constitution and return the issue of abortion to the people’s elected representatives.”

As the article points out, the votes do change over the progress of a case. But if this draft opinion becomes final, it would end abortion rights in America, and a lot more besides. Key decisions legalising homosexual sex and same-sex marriage depend crucially on Roe, so they are also clearly in the gun. Under the Republicans' stacked court, America is going full Gilead.

Which is precisely why the Republicans stacked the court: so they could use it as an instrument to impose minority rule (and it is minority rule: abortion rights have had clear majority support for decades and only a tiny minority of religious bigots think it should be illegal in all circumstances). In normal countries, the courts are a neutral arbiter of the law. In the US, they're just an appointed shadow-legislature, unelected despots who get to decide what sort of medical care you can have, who you can marry, and even who you get to fuck and how. And that's simply not compatible with being a modern, democratic, human rights-respecting normal country.

The United States needs to fix itself, and quickly. Or else they're going to end up being the Taliban with nukes. And I don't think that's how most Americans want to see themselves at all. As for how, political courts demand a political response. Expanding the Supreme Court and appointing some actual judges to balance out the frothing Republican stooges seems to be the minimum requirement. But of course, the Democrats are too chickenshit to do it, as usual.

A loss for Labour

Louisa Wall has been one of the most effective MPs of recent times. She gave us marriage equality, she gave us safe zones around abortion clinics, she gave us a ban on revenge porn, and she's currently working on protecting journalists sources. And now she's resigning, having been forced out of Parliament by her own party:

Labour MP Louisa Wall has resigned from Parliament, ending a 14-year career marked by the passage of same-sex marriage legalisation but also clashes with her party.

Wall, who has been cast as an outsider in the party, specifically referenced in her resignation an internal stoush at the 2020 election which led her to be ousted from the Manurewa seat, which she has held since 2011.

“It’s been an honour to represent and provide a voice in parliament to those who are so often unheard,” Wall said on Tuesday afternoon.

This is a tremendous loss for Labour, but they won't recognise it. But the rest of us should. And it certainly makes you wonder what is wrong with a party which cannot accept her.

Member's Day

Today is a member's day. First up is the Paige Harris Birth Registration Bill, an uncontroversial private bill to properly recognise a particular child's parent. Its being whizzed through with all its final stages taken as one debate after a lightning short select committee stage. No-one opposes giving this family some dignity, so I expect debate will be pretty short (not least because MPs may be saving it for Coffey's bill later).

Following that is the third reading of Louisa Wall's Contraception, Sterilisation, and Abortion (Safe Areas) Amendment Bill, which will be followed by the rest of the second reading of Steph Lewis' Biosecurity (Information for Incoming Passengers) Amendment Bill. Following that the House should get most of the way through Nicola Willis' Unit Titles (Strengthening Body Corporate Governance and Other Matters) Amendment Bill. If things move quickly, the House should make a start of Tāmati Coffey's Improving Arrangements for Surrogacy Bill, which (in part) addresses the general issues raised by the Paige Harris bill. Its a worthy bill, and I'm hoping it passes.

There are still plenty of first readings on the order paper, so there won't be a ballot tomorrow.

Member's Morning

Since the annual PM's statement trumps other business, this morning is a special extended sitting for Member's Bills. First up is the committee stage of Louisa Wall's Harmful Digital Communications (Unauthorised Posting of Intimate Visual Recording) Amendment Bill, followed by the committee stage of Todd Muller's Sunscreen (Product Safety Standard) Bill. When those are done, the House will move on to the secnd reading of Louisa Wall's Contraception, Sterilisation, and Abortion (Safe Areas) Amendment Bill. If it moves quickly, it might make a start on Steph Lewis' Biosecurity (Information for Incoming Passengers) Amendment Bill. Because this is all later stages, there will be no ballot on Thursday.

Member's Day

Today is a member's day, the last one of the year. Unfortunately its dominated by local bills and late stages. First is the Palmerston North Reserves Empowering Amendment Bill, which is about letting the Palmerston North City Council sell the old bowling club on Fitzherbert Ave. They've already tried and failed to do this once before, and they're clearly hoping that people will have forgotten. Next there's another rerun, the Canterbury Regional Council (Ngāi Tahu Representation) Bill, in which ECan - having refused to implement Māori wards - is seeking the power to let Ngāi Tahu appoint people to the council. This one has also been voted down in the past. In both cases, being local bills, they'll probably be sent to select committee.

After that, there's the third reading of the Rights for Victims of Insane Offenders Bill, which is solely about changing the words said in court to imply that people who aren't guilty are. Then there's the committee stage of the Harmful Digital Communications (Unauthorised Posting of Intimate Visual Recording) Amendment Bill. If the House moves very quickly, it might continue the second reading of the Contraception, Sterilisation, and Abortion (Safe Areas) Amendment Bill, but I doubt it'll get further than that. As its later stages all the way down, there won't be a ballot tomorrow.

Member's Day: Return of the second reading

Today is a Member's Day, and unlike the last month or so, where they have focuse don first readings, this one will be entirely given over to second and later readings. First up is the third reading of Andrew Bayly's shameful and racist New Zealand Superannuation and Retirement Income (Fair Residency) Amendment Bill, which is aimed at locking migrants out of superannuation. Second will be Todd Muller's Sunscreen (Product Safety Standard) Bill, which is pretty uncontroversial. Third is Louisa Wall's Harmful Digital Communications (Unauthorised Posting of Intimate Visual Recording) Amendment Bill, and if the House moves quickly it might make a start on Wall's Contraception, Sterilisation, and Abortion (Safe Areas) Amendment Bill. With the focus on later stages, there is unlikely to be a ballot tomorrow.

Progress in Europe

There's a lot of votes in Europe today, and the headline after the German election is that the Swiss have voted overwhelmingly for marriage equality in a referendum:

Swiss voters have decided by a clear margin to allow same-sex couples to marry, in a referendum that brings the Alpine nation into line with many others in western Europe.

Official results showed the measure passed with 64.1% of voters in favour and won a majority in all of Switzerland’s 26 cantons.

Switzerland’s parliament and the governing federal council supported the “Marriage for All” measure, and pre-referendum polls showed solid backing. Switzerland has authorised same-sex civil partnerships since 2007.

Its good news, which officially brings Switzerland into the civilised world while further marginalising the bigot-states. Marriages should start in a couple of months.

And in other good news, Berlin voted to expropriate its large corporate landlords. Its a non-binding referendum, but the acid is really going to be on the politicians to obey. And San Marino finally legalised abortion.

Member's Day

Today is a Member's Day, the first of the year. First up is the Girl Guides Association (New Zealand Branch) Incorporation Amendment Bill, a private bill to allow the Girl Guides to dispose of property held in trust. Next is the committee stage of Ginny Andersen's Holidays (Bereavement Leave for Miscarriage) Amendment Bill (No 2), after which we're on to first readings. The House should get through Louisa Wall's Harmful Digital Communications (Unauthorised Posting of Intimate Visual Recording) Amendment Bill, Judith Collins' Unit Titles (Strengthening Body Corporate Governance and Other Matters) Amendment Bill, and Shane Reti's Misuse of Drugs (Medicinal Cannabis) Amendment Bill (No 2), and if it moves quickly may be able to make a start on Louisa wall's Contraception, Sterilisation, and Abortion (Safe Areas) Amendment Bill. Which should mean a ballot for two or three bills tomorrow morning.

Assessing Labour's term

Parliament has just begun the adjournment debate, signalling the effective end of this Parliament. So it seems like an appropriate time to assess Labour's term in office. Unfortunately, its a pretty dismal assessment. Labour campaigned on one thing: change. Not just a change in who got the top jobs and the fat salaries, but a change in direction on inequality, on housing, on worker's rights, on climate change. And in her adjournment debate speech, Ardern is talking up those aspirations again. But the sad fact is that when in office, Labour hasn't delivered change. Instead, it has run a status quo government which has maintained existing inequalities and failures. Winston gets some of the blame for that, but not all - on some big issues, Labour chose not to change things, ruling out a capital gains tax, retaining the Hobbit law under another name, continuing subsidies for polluters and farmers. And they look set to repeat this, offering nothing if re-elected. No policies, no change in direction, just the red team getting the big bucks and the perks of office for another three years. That might thrill Labour hacks and apparatchiks, but it doens't thrill me.

A year ago, I called them a government of disappointment, and despite them finally having ovaried up and passed abortion law reform, I stand by that. Once upon a time Labour governments changed things and made New Zealand a better country. The modern Labour Party seems to have given up any ambition of that, and seem content to preside over whatever ruins National leaves them.

The government's one saving grace is that Ardern is good in a crisis. We saw it in Christchurch, we saw it over White Island, and we've seen it again with the pandemic: her instincts are good, and she is good at communicating what is necessary and bringing people with her. And in the middle of the biggest crisis we've faced for a century, that's useful, especially with the opposition working hard to make everyone think they are on the side of the virus. But we shouldn't pretend that she's good for anything else, or that the party she leads deserves re-election on its policy merits. The only policy achievements we've seen this term - the Zero Carbon Act, the Residential Tenancies Act, the half-measure of banning new fossil fuel exploration (which Labour immediately cheated on) - belong to the Greens. And the only way we will get anything other than the status quo from Labour next term is if the Greens can force them.

Drawn

A ballot for five Member's Bills was held today and the following bills were drawn:

• Misuse of Drugs (Medicinal Cannabis) Amendment Bill (No 2) (Shane Reti)
  
• Contraception, Sterilisation, and Abortion (Safe Areas) Amendment Bill (Louisa Wall)
  
• Lawyers and Conveyancers (Employed Lawyers Providing Free Legal Services) Amendment Bill (Sarah Dowie)
  
• Companies (Limited Partnerships Identical Names Prohibition) Amendment Bill (Gerry Brownlee)
  
• Corrections (School Notification of Sex Offenders) Amendment Bill (Matt Doocey)
  

I'll leave comment on the medicinal cannabis bill to the serious drug policy commentators. But Wall's bill will correct the mess David Seymour managed to make of abortion decriminalisation earlier in the year. I look forward to it passing.

None of these bills will be voted on before the election. Instead, it'll be for the next Parliament to decide on them. and hopefully that will be a Parliament with a strong majority against law-and-order bullshit.

68-51

The Abortion Legislation Bill has just passed its third reading, 68-51. NZ First MPs bailed because their referendum amendment didn't pass, but there were plenty of MPs to provide a majority without them. The bill is a long way from perfect - most significantly, it subjects pregnant people who need a late stage abortion to the wagging finger of society, just like the old law did - but it is a massive improvement. And it'll be in force within a couple of days.

There's still work to be done - both in making it truly a medical decision, and in establishing safe zones to protect pregnant people from harassment by bigots. But Parliament has done a good job today. Except for those who voted against: they're bigots, arseholes, or both, and we should de-elect them all.

Labour are chickenshits on abortion

Last night, inattentive MPs caused a major fuckup on the Abortion Legislation Bill, with David Seymour's amendment to remove safe zones being passed on a voice vote without anyone noticing. It was a procedural error, and the government has multiple options to fix it. But do they want to? Of course not:

Justice Minister Andrew Little will not try to re-introduce "safe zones" into his abortion legalisation bill after a procedural snafu saw them removed on Wednesday night.

[...]

Little said in a statement he would not be attempting to re-insert the safe zones into the bill.

"The safe zone provision was always the most marginally supported," Little said.

He said it wasn't clear if Seymour's amendment actually had the numbers but he would not be pursuing further change as the "substance of the bill" remained.

Another example of the complete chickenshittedness of this government. Its too much effort to find out where Parliament actually stands (rather than sleeps) on this, so they won't bother. But hopefully, some other MP will step up to lead where Little is refusing to. And if not, its an obviously subject for a member's bill once the main bill is passed.

A heckuva job on abortion reform

I'm currently watching the voting on the Abortion Legislation Bill, and it looks like inattentive MPs have made a major fuckup. One of the major reforms is provisions establishing safe areas around abortion providers, so people seeking an abortion do not have to face intimidation or run a gauntlet of hate to get a medical procedure. ACT's David Seymour (naturally) opposes this on free speech grounds, and has put up an SOP to remove it. Earlier this evening, the first part of that SOP, to remove the definition of "safe area" from the interpretation clause, was voted down. But then, later on, the second part, which would remove the actual clauses relating to safe areas, came up. And it passed on the voices, with no personal vote being called. MPs didn't realise what had happened until Marama Davidson's amendments to strengthen safe areas were ruled out of order as the issue had already been voted on. Someone did seek to roll things back by leave, but of course that was denied. And so, inattentive MPs have just cost women a world of hate.

Heckuva job, folks. Maybe you should drink more coffee next time?

81-39

The Abortion Legislation Bill passed its second reading last night, 81-39. Its a comfortable margin, and it bodes well for the bill passing. But which version of the bill? As presented to parliament it was a compromise, watered down from the Law Commission recommendations. It was further watered down by the select committee. Given the numbers, I think its unlikely that it will get any worse (though National's bigot MPs will no doubt put up amendments for the usual bullshit, as well as bad-faith measures intended purely to delay matters). But can it get better?

Fortunately, Jan Logie is on the case. She's put up SOPs to make abortion a purely medical decision and remove the bullshit hoops put in by politicians who want to shame women, to ensure remaining criminal clauses protect pregnant people rather than attempting to criminalise them, and to ensure that the law would apply to all pregnant people rather than just women. I'm hoping that there will be a majority for these amendments. Fortunately, the bigots with dead baby photos on parliament's lawn seem to be doing their best to ensure one.

Reported back

The Abortion Legislation Committee has reported back on the Abortion Legislation Bill and recommended that it be passed with some amendments. Unfortunately, the latter include even more hoops to jump through for those seeking abortions after 20 weeks, including a time-wasting requirement to consult a second doctor. No-one casually seeks an abortion that late, but those whose circumstances change or who discover an unforeseen medical problem will still have to endure the wagging finger of society over what is a basic medical decision. The committee has also strengthened the ability of "conscientious objectors" to obstruct the process and waste people's time, and explicitly allowed them to do so to victims of sexual violence. And that's just a bit shit IMHO.

I expect there will be a lot of amendments offered on this bill at the committee stage. Hopefully we'll see some MPs put up amendments to create the liberal regime the Law Commission recommended, rather than the worst option that the government chose (which has then been made worse by the select committee process). This bill was passed by a huge majority, and hopefully there's a majority within that for a far better law than the bullshit compromise the government is offering. And otherwise, well, this is still a massive improvement on the status quo, but it still stinks that reform has been watered down like this.