Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Bottom lines

Another poll was released last night, confirming the same story as previous polls: everyone hates Chris, and TOP gets to choose the next government if it makes it over the threshold. And today the party has laid out its bottom lines, giving some indication of how it will make that choice. It wants lobbying regulation, a ban on bottom trawling, a ten-year funding plan to fix the health system, a full commitment to the Paris agreement and protection of He Pou a Rangi's independence, and a Commerce Commission crackdown on supermarkets.

Its a pretty moderate list for a party which hopes to enter parliament for the first time, though the absence of even a study of their big bang land tax / UBI tax switch is a bit unusual. But it bodes well for the left, because there's nothing on that list that Labour and the Greens would disagree with, and much of it is already in their policy platforms. Its another sign that, in terms of policy, the parties are natural allies.

Meanwhile, its very bad news for the right bloc. The right parties collectively oppose lobbying regulation, support the pillage of nature, and oppose health spending (because they'd rather have tax cuts for the rich). Both ACT and NZ First explicitly want to withdraw from Paris, and ACT wants to disestablish he Pou a Rangi (National merely wants to nobble it). And ACT thinks regulating supermarkets is "unethical" (they're fine with price gouging duopolies screwing us over). In other words, any arrangement will be a mess of vetoes and counter-vetoes, and seething resentment over that. Which is not a recipe for a deal, or for a stable government afterward. But then, if TOP's board would rather keep the regime in power, that's what will happen, and all their policy positions will be revealed as just so much hot air...

Which is one of the reasons I'm not voting for Opportunity. That, and the fact that everything they offer is already being offered by the Greens, often better, and with more certainty that that is where they actually stand. But I'll be happy to see them as part of a left coalition, and they should be a useful hammer to beat Labour with and pull them to the left.