Yesterday the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission announced the final results of Parliamentary elections, giving the opposition Movement for Democratic Change a plurality over ZANU-PF for the first time in Zimbabwe's history. Even given the legislature's subordination to an executive presidency, it's a hopeful sign that change may be coming to Zimbabwe. But more hopeful is the government's admission that a run-off may be necessary in the Presidential election. While the independent counts disagree about whether this is the case (it's tight - MDC claims they have 50.3% of the presidential vote based on the popular parliamentary vote, while the Zimbabwe Electoral Support Network gives them 49%; the official results have been fixed to inflate the ZANU-PF popular vote to around 46% to the MDC's 43%), it's still the closest Mugabe has come to admitting that he is not the automatic choice of the people.
If it goes to a runoff, Mugabe will probably try to fix the results. But like many, I think it is interesting that it is taking so long for results to be announced. If Mugabe was that certain he could steal the election, he would just do it. The fact that he hasn't suggests that top members in his party are unsure that they can put one over on the Zimbabwean people one more time.
And OTOH, now that the police are back to raiding the MDC's offices, maybe the regime isn't so afraid after all.
Update: The Guardian reports that Mugabe is (through proxies) offering to quit if he does not face prosecution. While I'd rather see him in jail, what's important at the moment is getting him off the political stage and allowing a democratic system to reassert itself. Besides, the government or courts can always reverse the amnesty later, as happened in Argentina.
