After months of bickering, Pakistan’s ruling coalition has finally agreed to impeach President Musharraf over his dismissal of judges and his recent disputed "election" to the Presidency. Good. The question is whether they can do it. Quite apart from Musharraf's power to dissolve Parliament (a move which would simply delay the inevitable), Pakistan's impeachment process requires a two-thirds majority of both houses sitting jointly - or about 295 votes. According to the New York Times, the coalition has 305 votes, but that's an awfully tight margin which will almost certainly shrink over the next few months. And beginning proceedings only to have them fail is likely to strengthen, rather than weaken, the President's hand...
If we are lucky, Musharraf will resign rather than face the humiliation of impeachment. Otherwise, we could have a messy, drawn-out political struggle, with significant potential for further unconstitutional moves by the President and the military. If it goes well, it will restore democracy in Pakistan. But if it goes badly, it could set it back even further.
