Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Climate change: Designed to fail

How much will the government's massive subsidies for pollution cost us? The submission of Dr Christina Hood [PDF], a former analyst for MfE and current climate change advisor to the Kapiti Coast Distrct Council, has the answer: $105 billion by 2050:


Its a staggering sum, over 50% of present GDP. And it will go straight from our pockets into the pockets of polluters.

Note that after an initial dip, the number of units allocated - and hence emissions allowed - does not decrease, and in fact increases to 2050. This is a consequence of intensity-based allocation and projected growth in the farming sector. Its also worth noting that the government's proposed allocation scheme makes it impossible to meet their oft-proclaimed "50% by 2050" (i.e. about 30 million ton) target. Instead, they are committing our emissions to being at least 70% of 1990 levels in free credits alone.

This isn't even "do nothing". Instead, it's "announce target - set policy to ensure it cannot be met - hope that no-one notices". It is a policy designed to fail. And it makes crystal clear that all the government's talk of a 2050 target is simply spin.