National disenfranchised more than 44,000 voters

Last year the regime attempted to rig the election, overturning 77 years of settled law to cut off enrolment two weeks before the vote. At the time they were warned that this could stop up to 100,000 people from voting - but that was the point. Those late enrolments were seen as mostly young, and mostly opposition-supporting - voters National did not want to have their say.

National's artificial enrolment deadline has now closed. And it has had the expected result: overall enrolment is down 1.1%:

The Electoral Commission says the provisional enrolment rate for the election is 93.6 percent, compared to 94.7 percent at the 2023 election.

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The provisional rate for 18- to 24-year-olds is 74.2 percent, short of the 77 percent in 2023. A big push to get them enrolled saw that rate rise from just over 50 percent in July, an increase of more than 20 percentage points or 85,000 people.

Using the estimated eligible population figures from the Electoral Commission's enrolment statistics page, that turns out to be 44,500 people, 12,300 of them under 24. That's twice what the Attorney-General estimated in her report which found the change was inconsistent with the Bill of Rights Act. And that's a minimum figure - there's also the people who would have enrolled during the advance voting period, who now can't.

And now we have a number, we also have an answer to an ugly question about the legitimacy of the next government. If the regime holds power by 45,000 or fewer votes, then they absolutely stole the election and should be treated as illegitimate by the people of Aotearoa. And the same applies if they hold power by a massive overhang because the electorate votes of people who have moved were disallowed.

And on the other hand, its also a reason for hope. 45,000 is not a lot. If people turn out, we can overcome this unlawful, unconstitutional election-rigging, and vote in a government which will topple the regime and repeal its works. As we've seen this week, when the left votes, we win. So go off and vote, and throw out this criminal regime of election riggers!