Climate Change: Actions have consequences

In 2022, the government of Aotearoa made a historic free trade agreement with the European Union. In addition to the usual clauses about tarriffs, quotas, trade barriers, and so on, it included clauses in which the parties committed not to undermine the Paris climate agreement or weaken their environmental protections, and the power to apply sanctions if those provisions were breached. Since then, the National-led regime has repealed all effective climate policy, broken the linkage between our domestic goals and our Paris targets, refused to follow the spirit of the Paris agreement in setting new targets, and openly talked of refusing to meet our commitments when they come due. In other words, they've Fucked Around. And now they're about to Find Out, with a Dutch group launching a formal complaint that Aotearoa has broken the FTA:

A Dutch environmental group claims New Zealand has broken its climate change promises in the free trade agreement with the EU and is lodging the first complaint of its kind through the European Commission.

The group, Both ENDS, is using the complaints mechanism known as Single Entry Point and said this first climate test could be precedent setting.

The most extreme consequences could be losing access to the lucrative European market, but the group is seeking compliance rather than the suspension of trade benefits.

It claims New Zealand failed to uphold its legal commitments in the EU-NZ FTA not to weaken environmental protections in order to "encourage trade or investment," and to effectively implement the Paris Agreement.

But the Trade Minister is firing back, saying its "not for overseas countries, organisations or lobby groups to tell New Zealand how to meet its obligations".

But actually it is, since we agreed to that in the FTA. But I guess we can't expect this regime to understand the treaties it is party to, since it wilfully misunderstands te Tiriti, the treaty which legitimises it and permits it to exist.

As for what's at stake, McClay was crowing just a few months ago about how the FTA had led to $3 billion of extra trade with the EU. All of that of course is contingent on New Zealand keeping its word, and it will go away if we don't. The solution of course is for National to keep its word: to uphold the Paris Agreement, meet our emissions targets, and not roll back environmental policy to advantage business. If they don't want to do that, then we should get a new government which will.

Bottom lines

Another poll was released last night, confirming the same story as previous polls: everyone hates Chris, and TOP gets to choose the next government if it makes it over the threshold. And today the party has laid out its bottom lines, giving some indication of how it will make that choice. It wants lobbying regulation, a ban on bottom trawling, a ten-year funding plan to fix the health system, a full commitment to the Paris agreement and protection of He Pou a Rangi's independence, and a Commerce Commission crackdown on supermarkets.

Its a pretty moderate list for a party which hopes to enter parliament for the first time, though the absence of even a study of their big bang land tax / UBI tax switch is a bit unusual. But it bodes well for the left, because there's nothing on that list that Labour and the Greens would disagree with, and much of it is already in their policy platforms. Its another sign that, in terms of policy, the parties are natural allies.

Meanwhile, its very bad news for the right bloc. The right parties collectively oppose lobbying regulation, support the pillage of nature, and oppose health spending (because they'd rather have tax cuts for the rich). Both ACT and NZ First explicitly want to withdraw from Paris, and ACT wants to disestablish he Pou a Rangi (National merely wants to nobble it). And ACT thinks regulating supermarkets is "unethical" (they're fine with price gouging duopolies screwing us over). In other words, any arrangement will be a mess of vetoes and counter-vetoes, and seething resentment over that. Which is not a recipe for a deal, or for a stable government afterward. But then, if TOP's board would rather keep the regime in power, that's what will happen, and all their policy positions will be revealed as just so much hot air...

Which is one of the reasons I'm not voting for Opportunity. That, and the fact that everything they offer is already being offered by the Greens, often better, and with more certainty that that is where they actually stand. But I'll be happy to see them as part of a left coalition, and they should be a useful hammer to beat Labour with and pull them to the left.

Taxing the rich is popular

The election is just six weeks away, and the parties of the rich are frantically trying to scare us about tax. If a left-coalition forms after the election, then Labour will impose a capital gains tax! Or they'll be forced to accept the Greens' proposed wealth-tax on the uber-rich! Shock! Horror! Won't someone think of people worth tens of millions of dollars with multiple houses?

Meanwhile, while they're trying to frighten us, it turns out that the public actually supports these taxes. And they support a wealth tax more than they support Labour's least-they-could-possibly-do, protect the rich CGT:

[Image stolen from Ipsos Issues Monitor, via RNZ]

Note that this is asking about the specific policy proposals of the various parties, rather than vague propositions. So 64% of those polled explicitly support the Greens' proposed wealth tax. I guess they recognise what the problem is - the rich - and won't accept half-measures. Which includes TOP's land tax, because it explicitly excludes financial capital, while also taxing the urban rich at lower rates than the rest of us (and fuck that).

Labour and the Greens should be taking heart from this. Despite all National's scaremongering, people recognise very well that the only people negatively affected by taxing the rich will be... the rich. Which is why they and their paid stooges are screaming so loudly. As for the rest of us, it means a better life. Taxing the rich is a popular policy, and the left parties should push on it as hard as they can.

Good riddance to LNG

Back in February, in an effort to keep gas prices (and gas retailer profits) high, National announced a mad plan for an LNG import terminal, to be fast-tracked by a special law, with contracts signed before the election. It was a stupid plan, locking us into high-cost, highly vulnerable, highly polluting energy for decades, right when we are on the verge of eradicating it from our local energy mix. Fortunately, it now looks like its just not going to happen, with both of National's coalition partners vetoing the idea:

The Government’s hopes of signing a contract for an LNG terminal before the election appear in tatters after NZ First leader Winston Peters revealed Cabinet “decided not make a decision today” and the ACT Party voiced objections.

ACT leader David Seymour said the Government should leave the decision on whether to underwrite an LNG import terminal until after the election. Signing a contract before then would be “irresponsible”, he said.

NZ First deputy leader Shane Jones, who has referred to potential misgivings over a quick decision on LNG, hinted that was also NZ First’s view, but said he would leave it to Peters to make any announcement.

And hopefully that will be the end of it. When even corrupt, fossil-mad NZ First and ecocidal arsonists ACT can recognise its a stupid idea (in addition to every other party along the political spectrum bar National), then its a strong suggestion that it really is stupid. And hopefully after the election we'll have a new government which will end this stupid plan for good, and the gas industry can die a quiet death.

Submit!

Last week the regime introduced three anti-Tiriti bills under urgency, then rammed them through their first reading in a rare Saturday afternoon sitting to avoid public scrutiny. Those bills were sent to the Justice Committee, which has now called for submissions on them. There is no formal submissions deadline, but they encourage submissions by 1 December 2026 so they can be ready to be handled by the next Parliament. Submissions can be made on the form linked above, or by post (free!) to:

Justice Committee Secretariat
Justice Committee
Parliament Buildings
Wellington

The committee is handling all three bills as a group due to their closely related subject matter. If you're looking for things to say (beyond that they are a racist pile of shit and a horrific breach of Te Tiriti which will cause a generational delegitimisation of Parliament and the New Zealand state), they have been denounced by both the Waitangi Tribunal and Human Rights Commission. In terms of the committee's proposed new mandate to focus on producing "high-quality legislation", I suggest that is impossible. The only way to ensure high-quality legislation is not to pass them.

And if parliament complains again about getting "too many" submissions, I'd suggest that if Parliament keeps trolling the public like this, they can hardly complain when the public responds in kind. If they want fewer submissions, and less heat in their committees, maybe they should stop doing that, and just be less shit.

The Landlord Party

When National introduced its landlord tax-break, Labour's Barbara Edmonds called it a waste of money which would blow the government's books. Then-CTU economist and now Labour candidate Craig Renney was even harsher, pointing out how it would subsidise a handful of mega-landlords by over a million dollars each, funnelling public money into the pockets of the few. But now both of them are going to have to eat those words and pretend they never said them, as Chris Hipkins has decided that actually he wants to subsidise landlords after all:

Labour leader Chris Hipkins has ruled out any changes to interest deductibility settings for landlords, if elected.

The coalition government in 2024 reinstated landlords' ability to claim tax deductions for interest on residential investment properties.

Opposition parties decried the government prioritising "tax cuts for landlords" which cost around $2.8 billion over four years.

But Hipkins on Monday confirmed Labour would not change the policy, because it was committed to a capital gains tax instead.

Which is just another demonstration of Labour's cowardice, its pandering to the rich, and its unwillingness to actually change anything (at least, nothing that upsets anyone important; they'll gladly throw the rest of us under the first bus which comes along). Its also an example of their complete hypocrisy: this was a terrible policy just two years ago, now its suddenly great. Actual policy merit doesn't seem to come into it - just whatever reckons Chris has this week in his desperate effort not to offend his mates in the koru lounge.

Who does this policy appeal to? People on $309,000 plus slush who just got us to buy them another house. Who gets fucked by it? Everybody who wants public services. The problem for Labour is that there aren't a lot of people in the first category, and a fuck of a lot more in the second. Once upon a time the party knew that. Once upon a time it didn't need to even do the calculation, because it knew what it stood for. But it doesn't now, and as a result its pandering to the rich while trying to call itself a "labour" party. Maybe it should rebrand itself as "Landlord" instead.

Fundamentally, voters can't trust a party with no values. And if Labour drives even more voters leftwards or makes them give up voting entirely with this, then it can hardly whinge about the consequences.

Ignoring the elephant in the House

The Standing Orders Committee has finally reported back on the Review of Standing Orders 2026, proposing amendments to parliament's rules for the next term. In a term dominated by the constant abuse of urgency and related anti-democratic efforts to restrict public participation, people really only had one question about this review: what would it do to curb these abuses? The committee's response? Nothing. And fuck us for asking.

I'm serious. What people wanted was checks and balances to limit the use of urgency - a supermajority, a requirement that there be an actual state of national emergency to justify interference with the normal democratic process, or something similar. Some rules so that the government of the day couldn't just say "fuck you, urgency!" and ram through hugely controversial legislation overnight without scrutiny, or steamroll it over exhausted MPs at the end of a week of midnight sittings. The committee refused to consider any of that. The furtherest they will go is a default rule that a bill go to select committee after first reading, unless the member responsible moves that it go immediately to second reading, in which case there's a requirement that they "inform the House with some particularity of the reason why the omission of select committee consideration is warranted." And there's a similar requirement where select committee consideration periods are shortened.

Such a requirement already applies to urgency itself, and the record abuse of urgency this term is absolute proof of its ineffectiveness. But that's the sort of shit you get from a legislature which began as a rubberstamp for a hereditary tyranny. Unfortunately for them, some of us would like them to grow out of that and be something more.

Parliamentary apologists will no doubt point at the rest of the chapter on legislative procedures, the proposed new Legislative Scrutiny Committee and rules to allow various sorts of technical bills and revisions of the statute book to go much faster. But this is just missing the point. Because urgency overwhelmingly isn't used for those sorts of bills (if it was, it would be far less controversial). Instead, urgency is used to introduce hugely controversial legislation in secret; to ram it through quickly to prevent opposition; to shove it through its final stages again to limit the window when it is in the news. It is not used because there is any sort of "crisis" or (non-self-inflicted) time-limit - it is being used as a political management strategy by an anti-democratic regime.

Parliament claims to be the centre of our democracy. It cannot credibly make that claim so long as it retains this tyranny at its heart. Its refusal to deal with this problem further erodes its legitimacy and social licence and strengthens the perception that it is an undemocratic, out-of-touch institution, now actively ignoring the people it claims to represent.

But urgency isn't the committee's only area of failure. They've also dismissed calls to limit the use of discriminatory and unparliamentary language, saying that that's up to the Speaker. The constant racism from the regime benches, the questioning of MPs' citizenship or right to be there by racist Ministers, that's all OK apparently. Certainly nothing the House should take a stand on. As opposed to overdeclarations of pecuniary interests by MPs wanting to set a good example by being transparent, which must be stomped on lest anyone be forced to follow suit or be publicly shamed if they do not. Similarly, they view the record number of submissions this term (due to troll legislation and an increasingly active and engaged public) as a problem, rather than a positive development (the engagement, not the trolling), and so propose ways of dismissing or ignoring submissions which - in the eyes of the political class - are not focused on producing "high-quality legislation". Which also means that when the regime says "people will get to have their say at select committee" - something it does whenever it has refused to consult before legislating - it will be a lie. The regime might not care about that - they're anti-democratic scum - but you'd think that an institution which purports to be representative and to provide the people with a voice might. But it seems parliament doesn't care about that either. Instead, they're interested in insulating the political class as much as possible from what people think.

Parliament has failed here. And by failing so publicly and arrogantly, they have reduced their legitimacy, their social licence, their mana. The public deserved much more than a "fuck you" in response to our concerns about the erosion of democracy. And Parliament will have only itself to blame if we start saying "fuck you" right back at them.

Using austerity to attack democracy III

Back in June I posted about the regime's efforts to use "high costs" to limit the public's right to freedom of information, via a consultant's report which claimed that handling OIA requests costs $185 million a year. The numbers were bogus, of course - based on an Australian estimate, which is four time higher than the actual measured cost of handling requests at police - but of course Ministry of Justice's fancy consultants haven't corrected that in their followup report. Instead, they've doubled down, claiming that the true costs are two to three times higher than their initial estimate. Like I said, you hire consultants to deliver the answers you want, and TBL has just handed Goldsmith a huge number - half a billion dollars! - with which to attack our democracy.

Ministry of Justice's proposed response to this is all about weakening the OIA: limiting the definition of "official information" and the agencies covered; expanding withholding grounds; increasing charges; more refusals for "substantial collation and research"; giving agencies the ability to declare requesters (rather than specific requests) "vexatious”. Plus of course their regular demands like impunity for government doxxing. Most of which misses the point. Because while the consultants report does talk about repeated and complex requests as one cost driver, the overwhelming thrust is that the reason the OIA costs so much is that public sector agencies are just a bit shit. Some examples:

• Most agencies are terrible at information management, meaning they can't find anything and have to talk to subject matter experts, which takes a lot of time and distracts them from doing other things;
• Staff training is "highly variable" and documentation of OIA policies is often poor, meaning everything takes longer and costs more than it needs to, and wheels are constantly reinvented;
• Workflow management is mostly manual, which means poor coordination and tracking (unmentioned: requests falling through the cracks or being delayed because someone is sick or has gone on holiday);
• Risk-aversion, review, and executive-level sign off adds more expense and delay. The report frames this as wanting to avoid the time and expense of complaints to the Ombudsman (which agencies should be wanting to avoid, by making clearly lawful decisions), but a huge amount of it is just political arse-covering.

Tackling that stuff, through systematised training, common workflow and tracking software, and improvement of information management would go a long way towards lowering overall costs. But that would all cost money up front. And unfortunately the regime seems to be moving in the opposite direction, with planned cuts at the National Archives likely to lead to worse information management across the public sector.

There are some other useful suggestions - increased proactive release, assessing OIA withholding grounds when documents are created (allowing staff to assess risk early and not use as much SME time), standard legislated pathways for release of common types of information, greater resourcing. But you know that this government at least is going to ignore those suggestions. Instead, they'll be focusing on Ministry of Justice's proposals to limit the OIA rather than actually improve things. Still, at least the really radical ideas, like requiring RealMe to make a request, or ongoing tracking and surveillance of requesters (sorry, "systemic requester profiling") so they can be refused, didn't make it into the advice to the Minister. Meaning they'll probably be popped in at the committee stage of any resulting legislation in order to avoid consultation and scrutiny.

There will supposedly be "consultation" on any changes - brief, and after Cabinet has made its decisions, of course. But the entire process will be managed by Ministry of Justice. This is inappropriate. The OIA is constitutional legislation. It was drafted by a full government inquiry (the Danks Committee). Reviews have typically been conducted by neutral, independent bodies - the Law Commission in 1997 and 2012, and the Ombudsman in 2015 and 2019. By contrast, a Ministry is both institutionally captured, and the servant of the government of the day - a body totally inappropriate to be considering changes of this scope to constitutional law. If the government wants to fuck around with the fundamentals of transparency - the definition of "official information", the scope of the Act, withholding and refusal grounds - or tilt the playing field towards charging and providing less information - then that is something which needs an independent eye. The regime's indicated "reforms" and proposed pathway is a recipe for deceased social licence and trust in government - the very opposite of what transparency legislation is meant to do.

More tyrannical over-reach from Parliament

Two weeks ago The Post's Tom Hunt published a story about the select committee inquiry into FENZ, which apparently found that the FENZ board is dysfunctional and should be replaced. There is a related followup today, about its disastrous firetruck purchase, which was (weirdly) done without an open tender. Both stories relied upon material leaked from the Governance and Administration Committee's inquiry into FENZ (which released its report today).

Parliament's Standing Orders claim that select committee reports are confidential until publication, and that breaching this confidentiality is a breach of privilege. The committee's deputy chair, Tim Costley, complained to the Speaker about this, and Gerry Brownlee has obligingly referred it to Parliament's kangaroo court:

Speaker Gerry Brownlee has referred a report in The Post to the Privileges Committee.

The high-powered Parliamentary committee has the power to censure members of the public and could bar The Post’s political team from entering Parliament.

The story in question referred to a leaked select committee report about Fire and Emergency New Zealand (FENZ). It was not written by a member of The Post’s Parliamentary press gallery team.

The latter is important. In similar cases in the past, the journalists responsible have been members of the press gallery, and so the Privileges Committee has referred them to the gallery, which has suspended or demoted them for breaching their (parliament-imposed) rule that members must obey Parliament's standing orders. But no such lever is available here. So Parliament is claiming a right to punish random journalists for reporting on matters of clear public interest, simply because the reporting was "too soon" for the politicians' taste. Which is simply tyrannical bullshit. Even more so when you remember that the Privileges Committee is a partisan kangaroo court, whose procedures and biases would be laughed out of court were it ever able to be subjected to proper judicial oversight.

Tyranny from the Speaker and parliamentary institutions has been an unpleasant theme this term. We've had threats to use the Privileges Committee to imprison without charge or trial (which fortunately resulted in the purported power to imprison being removed); an outright Parliamentary lynching of Te Pāti Māori MPs for too effectively representing their constituents; and an utterly lawless Speaker applying the rules in a nakedly biased, partisan, and sexist manner. This is just the latest in a long line of abuse. But where previously the abuse has been confined to MPs, or members of the wider parliamentary community, here they're targeting someone with no connection to the institution at all, before a partisan kangaroo court.

This tyranny cannot be tolerated. Our over-mighty parliament needs to be brought under control, because it is currently a threat to our democracy. As for the solution, a good start would be repealing the 350 year old law which gives them their impunity, and bringing them under the oversight of some neutral adults - the courts.

The Overton window shifts...

Just ten days ago the Greens promised to smash the supermarket duopoly, forcibly breaking up Foodstuffs and (foreign-owned) Woolworths and nationalising part of each to form a state-owned KiwiMart. It may have been a bit tricky to implement (because Foodstuffs is an owner-cooperative), but it clearly caught public imagination. Because today National has been forced to announce that they, too, support smashing the supermarket duopoly, though only after a review, and only by forcibly splitting it up:

National has made a supermarket break-up a key part of its election pitch, proposing to sever Pak'nSave from New World in a bid to drive down grocery prices.

The shake-up would be contingent on a six-month review by the Commerce Commission into whether the split would actually leave shoppers better off.

If the watchdog gave it the green light, National said it would legislate to force through the separation.

The policy is heavily caveated - how many propertarian weirdos and supermarket execs has National appointed to the Commerce Commission? - and clearly subject to a veto by ACT (which they have reliably delivered), so its arguably an insincere PR exercise aimed at providing the appearance of support for change without any substance. But even that is a huge victory. The fact that the party of protecting established economic interests has been forced to publicly support the breakup of one of the most established economic interests in the country shows how far the public mood has shifted, and how desperate National are to avoid being on the wrong side of that shift.

So what about Labour? They've been silent about our cartel problem, and their response to National has been to get pissy about it. Which makes me suspect National has "stolen" their carefully caveated, multiple-outs, aimed at preserving the status quo policy, meaning they'll have to go back to the focus groups and get another one because they have no values or principles to guide them and they can't just agree with National. (They have announced an anti-price-gouging law, but that is only part of a solution, addressing the symptoms while ignoring the cartels in the room). Hopefully Labour's eventual policy - if they manage to get one before the election - will be stronger. But it would not surprise me if they failed to take advantage of the huge opportunity this represents, because it would mean change, and that apparently is what Labour now exists to prevent.

As for the Greens, getting National to support decartelization is a huge victory for them, and a huge victory for their theory of political change (use policy announcements to change the conversation and the political landscape, forcing policy to shift closer to Green outcomes as a result). They've shifted the Overton window such that the status quo of cartels is no longer politically acceptable. The other parties (especially Labour) now have to respond to that.

This isn't accountability

Less than a year ago nearly-Police Commissioner Jevon McSkimming was convicted of possession of child sexual abuse material. In the aftermath of the prosecution, the police began auditing police computer use to see who else among them might be a child pornographer. That review has now found 21 police officers looking at things which are illegal or breach police policy. But we're not allowed to know what, if anything, the police did about it:

The review identified 21 employees who had used the police network or police-issued mobile devices to conduct searches containing terms that could indicate access to pornography or other concerning material, the Independent Police Conduct Authority (IPCA) said on Tuesday.

Four cases were considered serious enough to require separate investigations, which remain ongoing under IPCA oversight.

Investigations into the other 17 employees have now concluded.

[...]

The IPCA did not disclose how many employees were dismissed or detail the sanctions imposed, but said it agreed with the outcome reached in each of the 17 cases.

Knowing what happened, so we can judge whether it is sufficient or inadequate, is the absolute basic of accountability. But when it comes to the police, we are denied that. The police won't tell anyone, calling it a "confidential employment process". Neither will the IPCA. And if you try and OIA the details, the police will refuse, and the Ombudsman will back them, and say that the IPCA's report fulfils the public interest in accountability. Which is simply bullshit. We have no idea what happened here. All we know is that a bunch of boys in blue say everything is OK, and a bunch of ex-boys in blue say "yeah mate, you can trust them".

I've previously called the IPCA a fraud on the New Zealand public. I see no reason here to change that conclusion. They're not providing accountability here; instead they're just colluding in a cover up for an institution which is rotten to the core.

A regime of trolls

Its 53 days until the election, and Parliament is in its last sitting block desperately trying to pass the last of the regime's agenda before it rises. So naturally, the regime has chosen this moment to troll the country with its latest racist pile of shit:

A contentious bill to repeal references to the principles of the Treaty of Waitangi in laws has been introduced to Parliament today.

The highly anticipated policy, baked into New Zealand First’s coalition agreement with National, proposes reviewing references to the Treaty of Waitangi in 19 pieces of legislation.

Parliament will begin its last sitting block before the election tomorrow.

It is expected to use urgency and extended sitting with bills likely to be debated into the weekend. It is unclear when this bill will be debated.

Except its three separate bills - one to delete references, one to amend them, and one to standardise (weaken) them. Which means if they want to send them to first reading its three hours of debate rather than just one. And all so a gaggle of racist parties can troll the people of Aotearoa and show off how racist they are.

But I'm not sure the regime will want to send them to first reading - because that in turn means sending them to select committee, which means submissions, which will coincide with the election. National's previous act of trolling, its racist Treaty Principles Bill, energised the left. It activated thousands of previously uninterested people to engage with the parliamentary process, resulting in the largest number of submissions ever received on a bill. It also saw the second-largest petition in Aotearoa's history, and one of the largest protests in our history. By trolling us like this, National is inviting a similar response. And if it wants a similar protest, right at the start of the advance voting period, with a clear message to vote the racists out, then it can have it.

...which makes these bills even more of an exercise in bad faith, introduced simply to upset and annoy, but with no real intent of advancing them. Which is basically this regime in a nutshell: trolls. They're a regime of trolls. And the sooner we are rid of them, the better.

Labour on climate change: Not quite the adult in the room

National has abolished all effective climate change policy, and is gaslighting us on the impact of that on emissions targets. National's partners are ouright arsonists and climate change deniers. So where does Labour stand? While they haven't released a full climate policy yet - better start soon? - they did make a small announcement this week, signalling a rapid ETS review to (among other things) look at how to disentangle forestry from the ETS. Good. He Pou a Rangi has been warning about this for years, and a review was in fact scheduled after the last election. National cancelled it. Since then the warnings have only strengthened, and National has kept kicking the can down the road, refusing to be an adult and fix the broken system, because that would upset established interests. The fact that they'll be able to criticise Labour for being the adult in the room is probably seen by them as a bonus - an example of how policy is driven by trolling, rather than any semblance of "responsible government".

Labour's announcement is unclear about whether the review will also consider industrial allocation - another huge distortion of the ETS, which similarly threatens to break it - but hopefully it will. Polluters have already had 18 years of subsidies, and if we want the system to actually be effective, it is long past time they ended.

Unfortunately, Labour is still refusing to be an adult over agricultural emissions, saying that pricing dirty cows was not going to be a default, and that instead

We think that we can work with farmers to do that without putting a price on methane emissions.

Which invites the obvious question: how? Because farmers have never engaged in good faith on this, and every time they pretend to, they simply stab Aotearoa in the back.

Labour is, like National, wanking on about "new technology" which reduces farm emissions. But unless they have actual, concrete policy to make farmers adopt it, that technology might as well not exist, and is simply a rhetorical distraction from the horde of dirty, farting cows which are destroying the climate and not paying their way. Pricing emissions was the way of forcing adoption, either directly at the farm level, or indirectly by getting processors like Fonterra to pass it down the chain. If Labour aren't going to do that, then they will have to use direct regulation instead. And if they refuse to do either, they are simply stupid little children, and not remotely serious about our biggest policy challenge.

And on the gripping hand, both Labour's likely coalition partners want to price agricultural emissions, and its a far more significant issue for them than Labour, so Labour's preferences on this are largely irrelevant. A cynic would say they've only adopted this position so they can "reluctantly" be "forced" into doing the right thing by the Greens and/or Opportunity - a dishonest and cowardly tactic from a dishonest and cowardly party...

There's a lot more questions, of course: what are they actually going to do about the Paris liability (something else National has kicked the can down the road on so they can criticise Labour)? What will they do about EVs? Coal? National's bullshit LNG terminal and the gas industry in general? Will they restore the clean car rebate and the GIDI scheme? Will they listen to He Pou a Rangi and strengthen targets? Hopefully there'll be answers to all of this before the election. But given their position on agriculture, I'm not sure they've going to be entirely adult about it.

Luxon is gaslighting us on climate change

Our CEO Prime Minister is very big on self-written KPIs, and has produced his usual quarterly bullshit report before the election. Given the state of things, this one quite rightly shows he's failing to meet his targets for employment, education, and health. In fact, the only targets he claims that he is meeting are those for crime and climate change. Climate change? Really?

Luxon claims to be "on tack" to meet the first and second emissions budgets, on the basis that MfE's emissions for the period are (just) below the budgets. Those projections were last updated in January, and do not include uncertainty ranges. From the latest inventory report (p 20), the uncertainty in annual emissions is around 8.6%. So against that, claiming to "meet" a budget by 3% (EB1) or 0.7% (EB2) is simply an accounting fiction. Its probable on the numbers that we'll meet EB1, but for EB2, its around 50-50. No honest person would claim that we are going to meet that target.

But don't take it from me. The official judge of whether we are meeting our targets is He Pou a Rangi, the Climate Commission. They produced an annual monitoring report on exactly this question, assessing progress towards our budgets and longer-term targets and assessing whether current policies are sufficient or not. What did they say about the targets in their latest one?

The first emissions budget is likely to be met

Projections show net emissions in the first emissions budget period are expected to be 282.3 MtCO2e against the budget of 290 MtCO2e, an overachievement of 7.7 MtCO2e (see Figure 2.4). This will be formally assessed in the end of budget report in 2027.

However, that came with a caveat that He Pou a Rangi had recommended that the budget be revised to 283 million tons due to methodological changes in how emissions are measured - a recommendation the regime had not just rejected, but legislated to make it impossible for any future government to accept. So what about EB2?

The second emissions budget is at significant risk and that risk has increased in the last year (Figures 2.5 and 2.6). Our 2025 report largely showed moderate risks. This is mostly from increased risks around electricity generation, agriculture and passenger transport.

And later:

Although the Government’s projections indicate the second emissions budget (305 MtCO2e) is likely to be met, the available buffer is smaller than the emissions reductions that are at risk. The budget should therefore still be regarded as at risk. The central estimate (the figure Government modelling expects to happen) of 301.4 MtCO2e in 2030 is 3.6 MtCO2e below the budget (Figure 2.7). Our assessment shows 12.4 MtCO2e of the planned emissions reductions are at significant risk. The high estimate would exceed the budget by 21.7 MtCO2e (Table 2.3).

Basically, a bunch of the emissions reductions the regime is relying on to meet the budget, in agriculture, energy, transport, and industry, are far less likely to happen due to policy changes (such as, oh, abolishing GIDI and the Clean Car Standard, or cancelling the gas phase-out and agricultural emissions pricing), while the regime is also pursuing explicit emissions increases via an LNG terminal and offshore gas drilling. And the expected impact of these policy changes is three times higher than the tiny margin the regime expects to meet the budget by. Again, no honest person would call that "on track". Luxon's claims to be meeting these targets are pure gaslighting.

The reality is simple: if we want to meet our emissions budgets, we need actual policy to do it. We won't get that policy from National, or its arsonist partners. If we want to save ourselves, we need regime change.

Time to smash the supermarkets

While Labour is reflexively cowering and refusing to release any policy, the Greens released a cost of living policy we can all get behind: breaking up the supermarket dupoly:

The Green Party is campaigning on establishing a publicly owned supermarket chain to break up the duopoly and drive down food prices.

[...]

Co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick said successive governments had failed to lure an existing chain to New Zealand to introduce competition in the sector, which is dominated by Foodstuffs and Woolworths.

"That's why today we are announcing the real solution: a supermarket owned by all New Zealanders, for all New Zealanders," she said.

"We're not short of supermarkets, we're short of competition. As experts have noted, divestment - that is, buying already existing stores - is key to breaking up the duopoly."

There are complications - one half of the duopoly (Foodstuffs) is a cooperative, so Foodstuffs doesn't actually own those stores. But that's just a matter of legislative language. The key is legislating them out of the cooperative and into a viable competitor, while also stopping the fragments from reuniting into a duopoly again. And while it would undoubtedly be cheaper to simply force the split, and hope some foreign chain buys in to provide competition, their demonstrated reluctance counts against it, and even if they did they could just sell up again and leave us right back where we started. Nationalisation gives us protection against that. It gives us control, allowing us to set policy direction (not just on competing on price, but also on employment standards). Another foreign-owned chain won't do that. Meanwhile the government buying an asset doesn't cost anything in a budget sense - it simply moves money from one column (cash) to another (assets), with no change in the overall balance.

And forced divestment and nationalisation is clearly necessary. Because despite all the status quo parties' pleading, the market is clearly not going to provide, and the current situation (where the duopoly makes a million dollars in excess profits a day, money which could be in our pockets rather than theirs) is clearly unsustainable. We can no longer afford to allow these tyrants to gouge us. Time to smash their cosy cartel and get some real competition. And while we're at it, do the electricity companies, the fuel retailers, and the banks.

Finally

Methanex is one of Aotearoa's biggest and least efficient polluters, burning 37% of our entire natural gas supply to produce a few hundred thousand tons of methanol, a low-value commodity. Meanwhile, they cheat on their taxes. And weirdly, we pay them to do this, with enormous pollution subsidies underwriting their local profits.

But now, finally, the scam is coming to an end. Having written the value of their local business down to zero earlier in the year, they have finally announced they are shutting down:

Methanol producer and major gas user Methanex says it will sell its New Zealand gas entitlements and “indefinitely idle” its plant in Taranaki after 40 years of operation.

Methanex said it had struck a deal to sell substantially all of its New Zealand natural gas contractual entitlements, starting in the first quarter of 2027 and continuing through to the end of the decade when the entitlements expire.

The company employs about 160 people in New Zealand.

And good fucking riddance to them. They were a foreign parasite who stole our natural resources and destroyed our environment for private profit. Now we can use the gas they consume for something else (like keeping the lights on in a dry year) - or if we're lucky, not use it at all.

It also destroys any case for National's corrupt boondoggle LNG plant. The electricity system doesn't need the gas anymore because they've just got Methanex's supply. Hopefully National will scrap their stupid plan immediately, rather than forcing the next government to go to the effort of legislatively cancelling any contract they purport to sign.

Member's Day

Today is a Member's Day, and probably (this time!) the last one of the parliamentary term. First up there is a pair of private bills: the Ōtautahi Community Housing Trust (Trust Variation) Bill and the Trust Horizon (Trust Variation) Bill. The committee stage and third readings of these bills has been combined for speed by agreement, so I'm expecting them to whizz through. Following that is the third reading of Shane Reti's (now renamed) Maritime Transport (Lifejackets on Recreational Craft) Amendment Bill. The House will probably make it to the second reading of Laura McClure's Employment Relations (Termination of Employment by Agreement) Amendment Bill (more radical ACT bullshit), and if it moves very quickly it might make a start on Lan Pham's Crown Minerals (Prohibition on Mining on Conservation Land) Amendment Bill. If that happens there'll be a ballot for one bill tomorrow.

While the last week on the sitting calendar should include a member's day, I expect there to be urgency somewhere along the line to disrupt it. So this is probably it for the term, unless National and Labour really want to vote down that mining ban bill.

Labour in a nutshell

In February 2024 the racist regime breached te Tiriti o Waitangi by disestablishing Te Aka Whai Ora, the Māori Health Authority. The agency had been established in response to a previous Waitangi Tribunal inquiry into pervasive racial inequalities in the health system, effectively making it part of a Treaty settlement, so the regime broke that as well.

At the time the Labour party promised they would reverse this, and re-establish the authority. But now they've changed their minds and won't bother. Why not? Because National might just disestablish it again.

This is Labour in a nutshell: pure chickenshittery. Refusing to do anything that National might object to effectively surrenders in advance to the far-right. So what's the point in them holding power if they're not going to actually do anything with it? Its obviously great for the pyramid-climbing Labour apparatchiks who will get huge Ministerial salaries and free housing and transport for doing nothing. But what's in it for the rest of us? Absolutely nothing.

A party which pre-emptively commits to not changing anything, even when it is a blatant injustice and violation of our constitutional foundations is not worth your vote. It is that simple. If you want change, vote for a party which will actually deliver it. In this case, that means voting Green or Te Pāti Māori.

Is petitioning parliament effective?

Aotearoa is ostensibly a democracy, and in a democracy there is a spectrum of methods you can use to register discontent, from writing letters to the media or starting a blog, to organising protests to occupations to civil disobedience to smashing and burning stuff. One of the tactics pushed by politically institutionalised people is petitioning parliament. But is it effective?

In the past, Parliament would take your petition, and assign it to the most relevant select committee, who would basically ignore it, before producing a three-line "report" where they said they had "no issues to bring to the attention of the House". But one of the major reforms of the current parliament was to introduce a specialist Petitions Committee, whose job was basically to hear these things. And as a result, petitions are more likely to actually get looked at. While some are still quickly dismissed, petitioners are more likely to at least be asked to give evidence on their petitions, and agencies and other groups are more likely to give a response, which the committee weighs. And the committee is more likely to make formal recommendations, which the government has to respond to. Sometimes, the government just says "go fuck yourself" in its usual, evidence-free way. But usually their response at least looks like they're taking the issue seriously, and promises action of some sort at some stage in the future.

So how does that work out? Unlike the old system, the Petitions Committee actually does followup, reviewing the government's actions against what it promised. Their latest report on this was released yesterday, and its dismal. Of 9 petitions reviewed, the government had failed to keep its promises on 5 of them:

• A 2024 petition to limit light pollution resulted in recommendations to immediately develop national guidelines on the matter. The government responded that it wasn't going to do that, but that MfE and MBIE were investigating how to gain accreditation as a "dark sky" nation. But it turns out they hadn't done anything beyond sending an initial letter - a perfect example of how agencies inflate what they're doing to prevent action.
• In 2025 the committee recommended that MPI the use of shock collars on dogs. The government said it would do this as part of a review that the National Animal Welfare Advisory Committee was doing at the time. Associate Agriculture Minister Andrew Hoggard then killed that work in favour of changing animal welfare codes for livestock instead. MPI promises that it will be done "as soon as the NAWAC work programme allows", but that doesn't appear to be any time soon.
• Around the same time, the committee made a similar recommendation to review the use of "virtual fencing" for cattle. MPI said that the relevant animal welfare code was being reviewed (see above). They then promised it would be released in 2026. It hasn't been yet.
• In 2025 the committee recommended the the government prioritise a survey and risk assessment of the RMS Niagara - a major environmental disaster waiting to happen. The government promised it would "continue to monitor the situation", but didn't fund any actual monitoring, so none happened. Presumably, their plan is to simply read the news to find out when oil starts washing up on Auckland's beaches.
• In 2025 the committee recommended the government review gambling advertising. The government said it would, then folded that work into existing work on online gambling. So advertising for online gambling was regulated, but not advertising for offline gambling. Another example of how the public service avoids work, pretending existing work is what is wanted, rather than actually looking at the request.

In addition, there are two followup reports on earlier petitions, which outline continued non-compliance by the government. So that's 7/11 failures.

The overall conclusion has to be that petitioning parliament is not effective. While things are better than they used to be, when the petitions committee makes recommendations, they are overwhelmingly either rejected or ignored. But at least we know this now - under the previous system there was no followup (because committees had too much other stuff to do and did not regard petitions as a priority), and so no feedback.

As for what can be done about it, I think the petitions committee needs to be more aggressive about policing its recommendations, and start summoning Ministers and officials to question them about their implementation (or non-implementation). Because both clearly hold the petitions system, petitioners, and parliament in contempt, and the latter is something parliament can not afford to tolerate.

As for those considering a petition, looking at this record, I'd suggest not wasting your time. Politely asking power to be nice and reasonable does not work. The only value in a petition is to highlight an issue to build support for less polite action.

Empty, entitled, arrogant, and exploitative

Another day, another piece about the problems of Labour's "small target" strategy. Today its The Spinoff's Joel MacManus, who argues that Chris Hipkins is batting for a draw. Stripped of the sporting metaphor, the basic argument is that Hipkins has "been so focused on negating the case against Labour that he never built a cohesive argument for Labour." His popularity has declined since he was defeated in 2023 because he's been too afraid to say why he should be in charge. And rather than fighting to win the election, Labour is relying on its prospective coalition partners to win it for them - which is going to create problems:

With Labour batting for the draw, the responsibility of playing for the win (and proposing an actual alternative policy suite) has fallen to its potential coalition partners. Opportunity has been picking up disaffected National voters in recent polling, the Greens are rallying progressives, and Te Pāti Māori’s overhang strategy is tilting the maths in the left bloc’s favour. Labour is just…. there.

[...]

If the left bloc manages to form a government after this election, it will be because Hipkins played a heroically disciplined innings. Labour could snatch a draw from the jaws of defeat. But that may be all it is – a draw. When you take the reins of government without any plan for what you’ll do, is that really a victory at all?

So, basically what happened in the UK with Keir Starmer.

But the UK had FPP and we have MMP, which means any future Labour-led government will be a coalition. McManus (like Daalder before him) points out that Labour "could end up in the same trap as National, with minor coalition parties setting the agenda because they’re the only ones who have one." Labour of course will try and deny this, and are already purporting to veto their partners policies. Which, from a party which is bringing no policies of its own to a coalition, which refuses to fight for victory, and is effectively demanding other parties win the election for them and put them in power, shows a certain level of entitlement and arrogance.

In fact, once you start looking at it like that, it leads to some unpleasant conclusions. Labour is demanding that its potential coalition partners do all the hard work in the election. Claiming the right to set and veto policy is effectively claiming all the profit from that work, while denying the people who did it the fruits of their labour. Which is exactly the sort of exploitative relationship the "labour" party was founded to destroy.