I've blogged a couple of times about anecdotal evidence that petrol usage is declining in response to high prices, but I've really been waiting on some solid statistics to confirm it. And now I have them. The official New Zealand Energy Statistics from StatsNZ show a clear decline in petrol deliveries (and hence consumption) since last year.
(Source: Department of Statistics, New Zealand Energy Statistics - June 2006 Quarter, Table 2 [XLS])
Less apparant from the above is that the rate of increase of diesel deliveries has also slowed, halving from 4.28% to 2.15%. Some of this is almost certainly due to switching from petrol to diesel, but we're also seeing an overall reductionin total petroleum demand which has eaten the usual annual growth. People seem to be getting the message, and buying smaller cars, driving less, and using public transport. And this will all feed through to our CO2 emissions statistics...
So, good news, unless you're an oil company. Which is probably why they've just cut their prices...
8 comments:
>>>Which is probably why they've just cut their prices...<<<<
More to do with the highish NZ dollar than much else at present.
Still the graph is interesting, and quite dramatically points up the substitituting of petrol with diesel that has been going on for a few years. What does need to be addressed is the ridiculously high "User Road Charges" that very small efficient diesels are facing, that is currently swamping a lot of the economic incentive to swap from petrol. The user charges for all vehicles uner 4 Tonnes is the same, so regardless of whether you are driving a 4 Tonne van going 25 l/100km or a 900kg Hyundai Getz doing 3.5l/100km....you are paying the same Road User Charge of $30/100km. For these smaller cars, the tax is added another fixed 50-80% onto their fuel costs which is acting as high line charges do for electricity consumers....a real disincentive to improved efficiency.
Posted by Anonymous : 9/07/2006 08:05:00 AM
It's my impression here in Auckland that there are more cyclists commuting into the CBD than there used to be. There are many routes where a bike is as fast as a car and definitely faster than the bus.
Now, if only we could get more cycle lanes on arterial routes...
Posted by stephen : 9/07/2006 11:46:00 AM
I think there is going to have to be a major overhaul of road user charges to make the system much more transparent. why should private vehicles using different fuels be subject to such a disparity in tax collection method? and what about bio-diesel users? How do they fit in?
Another interesting thing, NZ seems to be very slightly cutting petrol consumption in the face of massive petrol price increases, whereas the US is actually using more petrol this year than last. One theory suggests US consumers are running up credit card debt to pay for essentials, so maybe this is less prevalent in NZ as people have chosen to drive less and buy smaller cars.
BTW, are there published figures on total vehicle kilometres travelled and average fuel economy in NZ?
-tochigi
Posted by Anonymous : 9/07/2006 02:22:00 PM
I'm hardly optimistic... while less oil is being burnt here, more is being used overseas (hence the higher prices, which are essentially demand driven).
And the prices inevitably hit the poor much harder - http://money.guardian.co.uk/utilities/story/0,,1866448,00.html
This Labour led Government has done nothing to insulate us from energy shocks, and continues to build roads like there's no tomorrow. It's a pity their constituents pay the price for this muddle headed thinking.
Posted by Anonymous : 9/07/2006 10:30:00 PM
George - how do you think "the constituents" would react if Labour said "No point in building new roads, or improving old ones, we're running out of oil and are screwed anyway"?
The people see congestion, they see a lack of proper arterial routes, they see unnecessary convergence of journeys in the inner city (Auckland), and they see shitty, narrow, windy, dangerous highways. And they demandeth new and improved roads. If Labour doesn't support building them, National will be there beside the bulldozers promising the good motorists anything they want.
I suspect some of the new and proposed construction around Auckland has the potential to reduce demand for oil, as the new motorways will allow faster, more direct travel (e.g., no need for a trip from West to South Auckland to go through the central city's spaghetti junction).
Posted by dc_red : 9/08/2006 09:27:00 AM
How about if Labour said "We're going invest heavily in public transport running on renewable energy sources, because we're running out of oil and wasting money on increasing road capacity for cars would be utter stupidity"?
Posted by Commie Mutant Traitor : 9/08/2006 11:56:00 AM
CMT - I suspect 9/10 people would say "but public transport's not an option for for me because...." and then add: "I want my petrol taxes spent on roads goddamit."
Cue Don Brash and the bulldozer again. :)
Sure some of the objectors will be full of shit, but public transport has tended to cater to a very select group of people who need to travel: typically those moving from the suburbs to the CBD early in the morning, and then back out again in the early evening.
Posted by dc_red : 9/08/2006 12:04:00 PM
That select group is exactly the same group that currently causes most traffic congestion and the alleged "need" for more motorways. And part of the massive investment I'm advocating is extending public transport networks to make it a viable option for a wider variety of trips.
Posted by Commie Mutant Traitor : 9/08/2006 02:11:00 PM
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