Gordon Campbell has a pair of articles up on Scoop discussing the SIS's expected case against Ahmed Zaoui (part one, part two). The SIS have radically changed their case in the five years since the certificate was issued. When he first arrived in the country, they focused on the criminal association convictions in Europe (convictions regarded as unsafe by the RSAA, and certainly not justifying a return to torture and death) and claimed he was actively planning to commit acts of terrorism. Now, in light of the Supreme Court setting a higher bar for the certificate to be upheld, Campbell thinks they will instead try and paint Zaoui as an extremist who will inspire terrorism - despite all the evidence to the contrary.
Unfortunately, because the review is happening in secret and the participants are gagged, this is all guesswork. At the end of the day, we'll never be allowed to know the SIS's case - which means we can never be sure whether it is strong or merely paranoia.
