This'll be interesting

Speaking of Internet-Mana, not only is Kim Dotcom promising a pre-election bombshell, but he's getting Glenn Greenwald along to help:

Internet Party founder Kim Dotcom says he has enlisted heavy-hitting US journalist Glenn Greenwald, who blew open secrets about mass spying by the US Government, to help embarrass Prime Minister John Key immediately before the election.

Mr Greenwald will travel to New Zealand for an event at the Auckland Town Hall on September 15, when Dotcom says he will release information that is highly damaging for Mr Key and National.

The general election is five days later.

This is guaranteed to put some international attention on whatever is revealed. Hopefully it'll be big enough to justify it. Meanwhile, there's the obvious question: while John Key get his spies to deny Greenwald entry to New Zealand as a "threat or risk to security"? Five days before an election, it would be absolutely toxic, a confirmation of authoritarianism. But OTOH, this is the SIS we're talking about, whose stupidity knows no bounds...

Either way, it'll be interesting, and good to see the government squirm.

A circus of self-mutilation

The political weekend: the Greens announce serious, sensible, and popular policy, Internet-Mana packs out another public meeting, and Labour's self-mutilation continues:

However, Labour MPS are disgusted by Cunliffe's skiing holiday just two months before the election and will question his work ethic at a caucus meeting on Tuesday, a senior party insider said.

Labour is trailing National by 30 percentage points, polling just 24.9 per cent in the latest Stuff-Ipsos poll.

"A lot of MPs are really f..... off about it," the insider said.

"They are all working hard up and down the country, and f...... Cunliffe is on holiday. Guys like [Phil] Goff and [Annette] King and [David] Shearer, these guys really want it badly and they are working like their lives depend on it. And I think they are a little incredulous about what the guy is doing."

Yes, faced with an election they're trying to convince us they need to win or National will privatise your kidneys and sell your children to a charter school, Labour's "senior insiders" are sabotaging their own campaign and focusing on positioning themselves for the post-loss leadership struggle. Why would anyone vote for such a clown-show? More importantly, why would anyone volunteer for them? They're clearly not worth the time and effort.

Meanwhile, Labour hacks are talking about the need for everyone on the left to work "hard, seamlessly, together, and well" (meaning "STFU and stop criticising Labour"). But its clear which party isn't pulling its weight here. The Greens are on track to equal or better their 2011 performance. Internet-Mana is doing so well even John Armstrong has to notice. If the left loses this election, it will be because of Labour.

A new alliance?

So, its official: Mana and the Internet Party are forming an electoral alliance. Given that the two parties have practically nothing in common its an odd alliance, and its hard to escape the feeling that Kim Dotcom is basically buying the electorate seat he needs, especially as they'll be providing the money. And on the gripping hand, Mana's members (give or take Sue Bradford) are apparently happy with the arrangement. Its their party, so who am I to disagree?

As for the practical effects: its likely to be a tight election (especially as National has no friends), so every seat will be crucial. Stopping 1% of the vote from being wasted and locking it onto the anti-National side could be the difference between a National-led and Labour-led government. If so, we can expect more wailing about MMP from National in future.

I don't see it either

The "big" political news today (this being a non-sitting week when the politicians are on holiday, some of them literally) is that the Internet Party is in talks with Mana to form an electoral alliance (which presumably means a joint party list). Like pretty much everyone else, I'm boggled by this. Its easy to see why the Internet Party would want to talk to Mana: they're unlikely to make 5%, so they need to find an electorate MP to get their people into Parliament. But its much harder to see why Mana would be interested in assisting a party founded by a multi-millionaire (who sought to buy influence via John Banks), and whose platform and core constituency has virtually nothing in common with theirs. Even talking to Dotcom undermines Mana's sense of authenticity and alienates its supporters and activists. For them, its all cost and no benefit.

But maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Maori and the poor are deeply interested in internet freedom, and maybe there's a lot of IT geeks who support the Treaty and worker's rights. Or maybe, despite those enormous differences, they'll be able to get along, or at least co-habit. After all, Winston manages it - though largely by ensuring his two core constituencies of conservative Maori and racist Pakeha pensioners are never in the same room together. But I doubt it.

The Maori Party's death warrant

Over the weekend, Hone Harawira's Mana Party held its AGM in Auckland, and announced that it would be standing candidates in all the Maori seats, as well as several general electorates. The obvious consequence? The Maori Party is going to be in deep trouble. With their party vote split, and facing strong, three-way contests in Tämaki Makaurau and Waiariki, they could be reduced to two or three seats. By refusing to stick to its deal with Hone, the Maori Party seems to have signed its own death warrant. Oh, they'll still be around - but they'll be a rump, not a serious political force.

But the Maori Party's problems are National's as well. While current polling has them looking at an absolute majority, I'm not sure that that will last (it certainly didn't last time a party was in this situation, in 2002). If their vote slips by too much, the shrunken Maori Party won't be enough to provide them with an easy majority by itself. And with ACT also looking at shrinking, they won't be able to rely on them either. Which means the unpleasant prospect of trying to juggle both ACT and the Maori Party in coalition together. Its almost enough to make you feel sorry for them.

Sadly, having shown some brief competence earlier when they announced their Capital Gains Tax, Labour now seems to be doing everything possible to ensure a National majority government. Heckuva job, guys.

Te Tai Tokerau

I wanted to post about the Te Tai Tokerau by-election, but realised that I have nothing useful to add. So instead, I'll point you to two people who do: Morgan Godfery at Maui Street on the failure of the (Pakeha) media and Labour's "turnout machine" (which does not bode well for November), and Graeme Edgeler at Public Address on how this is good for everyone (if the Maori Party returns to sanity, which they aren't).

Hone, Hone, Hone

OK, so I know Hone Harawira likes to play the rebel, but praising Osama bin Laden as a freedom fighter? For fuck's sake, the man was a mass-murderer. It was wrong to execute him without trial, and wrong to take pleasure in his death, but that doesn't mean anyone should delude themselves that he was some sort of noble figure. There is no nobility in killing people, no matter what your cause. Killers should be shunned and despised, not celebrated as heroes.

Goff's empty threat

It's Monday, so that means it must be time for the regular weekly failure by Phil Goff. This week's fuck-up? refusing to work with Hone Harawira's Mana Party:

Labour leader Phil Goff has ruled out working with anyone in the Mana Party formed by renegade MP Hone Harawira at the weekend.

[...]

Mr Goff had previously ruled out working with Mr Harawira after the November general election.

Labour spokeswoman Vikki Carter said Mr Goff had now extended that decision to any MP who enlists with the Mana Party.

He could not work with anyone who worked for a party with values and core policy shaped by Mr Harawira, she said.

While the Mana Party is led by Harawira, it is also clearly on the left, and therefore a natural ally. And while its obviously a lot further left than Goff - a former RogerNome - is comfortable with, working out how to work together despite such differences is what the coalition process is for. There's no suggestion yet that Harawira will be as retrograde in coalition talks as, say, Don Brash, and given the presence of Sue Bradford I'd regard that as highly unlikely. As her Parliamentary record on youth rates, mothers in prison, and child beating show, she excels in finding ways to work together. Goff ruling them out is therefore simply shooting himself in the foot. So why's he doing it?

One obvious reason is to try and prevent left-wing Labour voters from backing Hone to pull Labour left; pre-emptively saying "he will have no influence" weakens that tactic. But there's also an obvious element of pandering to racism. Hone is a hate-figure among rednecks, and Goff wants to signal that they can safely vote Labour without fear he'll go into coalition with an "uppity Maori". Neither shows Goff in a good light.

But besides that, the threat is empty. If Hone's votes are crucial to Goff becoming Prime Minister, this declaration will be forgotten in an instant (just as Key's promise that Brash won't be deputy PM or Finance Minister will be). It's simply a hypocritical exercise which needlessly alienates a natural ally, and which only a fool would believe. But maybe Goff (and his advisors) think we are all fools.

The done thing

Yesterday Hone Harawira launched his new Mana Party. He also made a shock announcement that he would resign from Parliament to force a by-election - something he had denied on The Nation just that morning. People are already complaining about the cost, calling the by-election "unnecessary", but I beg to differ. Seeking a new mandate from your voters when you switch allegiance or found a new party is the done thing in New Zealand. Winston did it, and Tariana did it, because they both knew that if they did not, then they would be criticised as lacking a mandate by their former colleagues and the media. As for doing it in election year, Winston's by-election was in April, just 8 months out from the 1993 general election. Yes, it costs money, but that's the price of democracy. And if we weren't paying it, the same people now complaining about the cost would be questioning Harawira's legitimacy as a representative because he had not sought such a mandate.

(They're already smearing him by saying he's doing it for the money; Graeme Edgeler puts paid to that silly idea here)

Hone's big mistake in this isn't calling a by-election, but lying about his plans just a few hours beforehand. Journalists hate being lied to, and they're taking revenge the best way they know how: by wilfully misrepresenting Hone's position (e.g. Patrick Gower's lies about him wanting to "abolish all taxes"; actually Hone wants to abolish GST). It certainly shows that our media aren't the neutral purveyors of information they pretend to be.