Majorities and the drinking age

The Keep It 18 campaign have sent me an interesting spreadsheet, compiled from Parliament's electorate profiles and comparing the number of voters aged 18 - 22 at the next election to the size of the sitting MP's majority at the last. It's a fairly crude analysis, but 23 of 69 electorate MPs are vulnerable to a significant swing amongst young voters, and four MPs - Bob Clarkson (Tauranga), Steve Chadwick (Rotorua), Darren Hughes (Otaki),and (irony of ironies) Martin Gallagher - are vulnerable if the swing is less than 10%. Of these, only Gallagher backs raising the age. Of those vulnerable to a 15% swing in the youth vote, Mark Burton (Taupo), Nanaia Mahuta (Tainui) and Pita Sharples (Tamaki-Makaurau) are in the "don't know" column, Craig Foss (Tukituki) backs an increase, while Anne Tolley (East Coast) wants to see a split purchasing age. These might be people worth targeting.

Speaking of targeting, I've also set up a pledge to contact MPs on this issue. I'm not being particularly ambitious - I'm only after 10 people to join me - but the pledge is open until Friday, and people can sign up even after it has been filled. FWIW, I've already done my end - I sent out a bunch of letters to undecided MPs on Saturday.