Well, the results are in, and they match the pre-election polls: a coin-flip. At present, before the special votes, Labour is marginally ahead on the party vote, but thanks to the weirdness of FPP, National has 6 more seats. While the regime has 67 seats in a 131 seat house (!) and can form a government, that position normally wouldn't survive the special votes, and we won't know how things stand, or who is in a position to coalesce with who, until the final results are declared on November 27.
Which puts us in a really unpleasant situation where the results of the election depend fundamentally on National's voter suppression. National tried to reduce the number of special votes to "speed up the count" - something it will not do because there is a statutory timeline, and because it will likely result in more invalid special votes being cast, which still need to be checked. In 2023 there were over 600,000 special votes - 21% of the total cast - and they resulted in four electorates changing hands and National losing two MPs while other parties gained three - which is what the regime wanted to stop. Normally you'd expect at least as many as last year, but Luxon said in his speech there were only 300,000. We have to hope that number is inaccurate, because if it is remotely correct then it shows us the scale of National's election-rigging - 300,000 votes, 10% of the electorate disenfranchised - and creates a huge legitimacy problem if the regime holds power or if their margin of "victory" is less than the number of disallowed special votes (normally about 16,000). A problem which might grow even worse with the regime's admission that their election-rigging violated the BORA and the High Court set to rule on whether to hand down a formal declaration of inconsistency (that is, a declaration that the election was stolen).
Secondly, there's the overhang. At present, we have a 131-seat parliament! Which is more than they actually have seats for! But in terms of its impact, its a non-issue - National's 6-seat overhang roughly cancelled Te Pāti Māori's 5-seat overhang. And in terms of its legitimacy, the regime has 51% of the seats on 49.91% of the party vote - not wildly disproportionate, and in fact perfectly appropriate once the wasted vote of 0.85% is taken into account. But if these numbers shift on the specials, and we end up with the regime holding a majority of seats on a smaller party-vote share than their opponents (who currently collectively have 49.19%), then this too could cause legitimacy issues.
(Conversely, if the left wins power on a smaller vote share than the right due to the disproportionate effects of the overhang, then that too would result in fundamental legitimacy issues. Its a poison chalice for everyone).
Finally, there's the simple fact that our elections are not meant to work like this. Waiting for the special votes is fine and normal. But the result fundamentally depending on a handful of close races in marginal seats (Hamilton East, Mt Roskill, Wairarapa, Te Tai Tokerau)? We were meant to be done with that bullshit in 1993. Electorates should be a sideshow, of interest to the people competing and the people who live there, but largely irrelevant to the final result.
This is going to result in real pressure for electoral reform, especially if we get a perverse result which thwarts the will of the majority. Ending vote-rigging and disenfranchisement. A larger parliament with more list seats to reduce the impact of overhangs. And a lower threshhold for the same. The Electoral Commission recommended this over a decade ago, and while their concerns about "coat-tailing" are fighting last decade's battles (its just not an issue anymore, and won't be with a lower threshold), their core concerns about the threshold and the balance of list to electorate seats are still valid. The system was designed in the FPP-era, and is not designed to cope with major-party weakness. It needs reform. Unfortunately the regime will probably try and use it as an excuse to eliminate the Māori seats. Which, like their threats to eliminate the Waitangi Tribunal, seems likely (in the words of Chris Finlayson and Te Ururoa Flavell) to lead to "social unrest", especially if they're doing it from a position of electoral illegitimacy. Which is not going to be a fun ride.
Finally, the fact that this is remotely close, and that Labour is barely ahead of National in the party vote, is an indictment on that party and its chickenshit leadership. Running against the worst government in living memory (with a "don't change sheep midshag" campaign) should have been a walkover. Instead, cowardly Chris has given us a tie. Its peak mediocre white dude right there. The Greens have held up their end of the left-wing government equation, and grown their vote share. Its Labour which has not. And if the regime holds power after all this, we can lay the blame squarely at their feet.
Oh, and TOP is in. Which means now we get to see what they really stand for. Good luck.
And now, we all get three weeks holiday from politics while waiting for the special votes. Enjoy it while it lasts!
