New Fisk

The remembrance poppy is becoming a weapon against immigrants to Canada. We need to remember everyone’s contribution to the war
I talked to everybody I could in Syria, controversial or otherwise. That's how you find out the truth

Climate Change: Europe declares an emergency

The European Parliament has voted overwhelmingly to declare a climate emergency:

The European parliament has declared a global “climate and environmental emergency” as it urged all EU countries to commit to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

The vote came as scientists warned that the world may have already crossed a series of climate tipping points, resulting in “a state of planetary emergency”.

Intended to demonstrate Europe’s green credentials days before a crucial UN climate conference in Madrid, the vote also ratchets up pressure on Ursula von der Leyen, the incoming president of the European commission, who declared this week that the EU would lead the fight against “the existential threat” of the climate crisis.

The next step of course is to follow this up with action: more ambitious targets, and tougher policies to reach them. Most of Europe has agreed to phase out coal, which is a good start, but they need to do a lot more.

Meanwhile, I'm once again asking: what about New Zealand? Where's our emergency? Because while its symbolic, symbols matter. They drive action, say "we are going to take this seriously", and enable the government to be held to account for failing to do so. So, why isn't prime Minister who famously declared climate change to be "my generations' nuclear free moment" pushing this here?

Leaving us with the bill

Two weeks ago, Malaysian-owned oil company Tamarind declared it was insolvent and went into administration after a failed offshore drilling campaign. Tamarind apparently specialises in buying oil fields at the end of their life and trying to squeeze out the last few drops of pollution. But part of their scam may also be leaving us with the cleanup bill:

The $155 million bill to decommission an oil field off the coast of Taranaki may end up being covered by taxpayers.

Tamarind Taranaki, which owns the Tui Field, went into voluntary receivership earlier this month, meaning the government could be responsible for plugging and abandoning its wells.

[...]

But the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment said in a statement that if the company was not able to cover the costs of abandoning the field, the entire bill may fall to the Crown.

There's an obvious parallel here with climate change (where the fossil fuel industry is also leaving up with the cleanup bill, despite having created the problem), and it ought to be a warning about the dangers of allowing these companies to operate in New Zealand. At the least, before they drill a single well, they should be required to deposit a bond covering the entire cost of cleanup with the government, to prevent them from pulling this sort of scam in future.

Climate Change: The task before us

Two weeks ago, the Zero Carbon Act became law. Right this moment, the Climate Change Commisison will be working on its initial budgets for 2022-25 and 2026-2030, and the UN has just given them a very clear steer:

Countries must make an unprecedented effort to cut their levels of greenhouse gases in the next decade to avoid climate chaos, the UN has warned, as it emerged that emissions hit a new high last year.

[...]

Global emissions must fall by 7.6% every year from now until 2030 to stay within the 1.5C ceiling on temperature rises that scientists say is necessary to avoid disastrous consequences. The only time in recent history when emissions have fallen in any country at a similar rate came during the collapse of the Soviet Union. During the financial crisis and recession, emissions in the US and Japan fell briefly by about 6% but soon rebounded.

[...]

Postponing action could no longer be an option, said Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP. “Our collective failure to act early and hard on climate change means we must now deliver deep cuts to emissions [of] over 7% each year, if we break it down evenly over the next decade. This shows that countries simply cannot wait.”

Without such urgent action the world’s fate would be sealed within the next few years as carbon would rise to such a level as to make dangerous levels of warming inevitable, she said. “We need quick wins to reduce emissions as much as possible in 2020, then stronger [commitments under the Paris agreement] to kickstart the major transformations of economies and societies. We need to catch up on the years in which we procrastinated.”

This is the yardstick by which the first emissions budgets under the Zero Carbon Act are going to be measured. If they're compatible with this trajectory, then all is good. If they're not - if they propose weaker cuts, action considered inadequate by the experts - then the Act will be a failure from the outset, and the Minister and the Commission can expect to have their budgets challenged in the courts and on the streets. It is that simple.

Giving the finger to Beijing

Hong Kong has been protesting for six months for, demanding democracy, human rights, and an end to police violence. Today, they went to the polls in district council elections - a low-level of government with virtually no power, similar to community boards in New Zealand. But while the positions themselves were fairly powerless, they could still be used to send a message and give the finger to Beijing. And that's exactly what voters did:

The anti-establishment reverberations from almost six months of street protests swept through polling stations across Hong Kong on Sunday, as voters in record numbers roundly rejected pro-Beijing candidates in favour of pan-democrats.

The tsunami of disaffection among voters was clear across the board, as pan-democrats rode the wave to win big in poor and rich neighbourhoods, in both protest-prone and non protest-afflicted districts and, in downtown areas as well as the suburbs.

Less immediately obvious was whether there was a generational divide in the way the people voted, but ousted pro-establishment district councillors suggested that young, first-time voters had been instrumental in dislodging them from their perch.

By 7am, the pro-democracy camp had gained a majority in at least 12 of the 18 district councils, taking 278 seats.

All councils were previously under pro-establishment control from the 2015 elections.

More recent results are saying the democrats have 333 seats to the establishment's 37, with less than a hundred seats to go. Its a very clear message from voters to their government, and to Beijing. The only question is whether the latter will listen.

National supports slavery

Meanwhile, while the government is planning to restore voting rights to prisoners, National is promising to turn our prisons into US-style slave-labour camps:

The Opposition is proposing compulsory education, training or employment for prisoners who are serving sentences of two years or more.

[...]

On Sunday, National Party Leader Simon Bridges said his was a party of law and order and would release its full discussion document on the law on Tuesday.

Part of that would include making the current opt-in system of working prisons becoming compulsory.

Compulsory work or you get punished? There's a name for that: slavery. And its illegal everywhere in the world, including New Zealand.

And lest anyone think this is hyperbole: prisoners in New Zealand are paid just 20 cents an hour. They have no labour rights, cannot join unions or strike, and their "employer" is not subject to the usual health and safety regime. This is not "employment" as normally understood, with contracts, rights, and transparent deductions for expenses, but a regime which uses the coercive environment of the prison system to extract forced labour from prisoners, while undercutting real businesses and driving free workers onto the dole queue. And the New Zealand government recognises this for foreign prisons, banning the importation of goods produced by prison labour. We need to recognise it domesticly as well.

National's policy is one part Trumpian performative cruelty, and one part keeping wages low for the benefit of their business cronies. It is abhorrent and immoral, and they should be ashamed of themselves for advocating it.

Erasing the infamy

Last year, the Supreme Court confirmed that National's prisoner voting ban - a law so shoddily passed that it brought Parliament into disrepute - breached the Bill of Rights Act. This year, the Waitangi Tribunal added that it also breached the Treaty of Waitangi. And now, the government has finally got the message and will reverse it:

Justice Minister Andrew Little has revealed some prisoners will be allowed to vote in next year's general election.

People sentenced to less than three years in prison will have their voting rights restored.

This will return the law to the way it was pre-2010, before the National-led government removed voting rights from all sentenced prisoners.

"We plan to make this change in an Electoral Amendment Bill before the next election, so that people sentenced to less than three years imprisonment can participate in the 2020 election," Little said.

Which is good, and what should happen when the courts find Parliament has breached its duty to follow the Treaty and the BORA. At the same time, it raises a number of questions. Most obviously, why they're not going the whole way, and restoring voting rights to every prisoner, rather than just going back to the status quo ante? Because the arguments for short-term prisoners being able to vote apply just as powerfully to long-term ones. But Labour is the government of half-measures, so I guess that's all we'll ever get from them.

And while we're at it, if the government is willing to use the Electoral Amendment Bill - pitched as an administrative tidy-up - to do this, why won't it also use it to reform the electoral finance regime and impose greater transparency? Or begin the process to allow 16 and 17 year olds to vote? Both have powerful democratic arguments in their favour, and have also been demanded by submitters on the Bill. Or is the unjust status quo all we can ever expect from Labour?

New Fisk

I witnessed my first real battles and saw my first corpses in Belfast. It prepared me for the Middle East
Mike Pompeo scorns the law because powerful men like him never have to follow it

Climate Change: Submit!

The Environment Committee has called for submissions on the Climate Change Response (Emissions Trading Reform) Amendment Bill. Submissions are due by Friday, 17 January 2020, and can be made online at the link above.

The bill makes a number of changes to the ETS, including linking it to the carbon budget framework in the Zero Carbon Act. It also brings agriculture into the scheme in 2025 and continues to subsidise it for a century after that, while continuing free industrial allocation for another four decades. It also includes another secrecy clause for the auction monitor, because the government does not trust the withholding provisions of the OIA, despite them working well for almost 40 years. I urge people to submit specifically to ask that:

• Agricultural emissions be brought into the ETS immediately, with an identical free allocation and phase-out regime to industrial emissions;
  
• The free allocation baselines for industrial emissions be reduced to 82% and 52% respectively to align them with present levels, and that these free allocations be phased out within a decade;
  
• If the free allocation baseline is not reduced, then the allocation regime needs to be amended to prevent industrial polluters getting windfall credits for previous years;
  
• Carbon prices are up against the price cap, so the carbon price needs to rise. The fixed price option should be immediately raised to $50, and by $25 a year thereafter, so that prices can find their true level (this will become irrelevant in 2023, when the cost-containment reserve kicks in);
  
• The secrecy clause in s30GF and 30GG should be removed, as the OIA is sufficient;
  
• The secrecy clause in s99 of the Act should be amended in accordance with the Ombudsman's advice on the issue given to the committee when hearing the Zero Carbon Act.
  

The current bill favours polluters and farmers while keeping carbon prices low. Which is exactly the opposite of what we need at this stage of the climate crisis. Instead, we need prices to rise, and for farmers and polluters to face the full prices of their emissions. That's how economic instruments are meant to work, and the government's continued subsidies undermines any chance of real emissions reductions.

If Shane Jones isn't corrupt, he is trying very hard to look it

Last week we learned that New Zealand First had apparently tried to enrich itself from public office, with a dodgy forestry company linked to a number of NZ First figures sticking its hand out repeatedly for government money. Today in Question Time Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones had his first opportunity to answer questions for himself on the issue (previously, others had been answering on his behalf). But when asked simple questions about what he knew and when, he did his utmost to cloud the issue:

CHRIS BISHOP (National—Hutt South) to the Minister for Regional Economic Development: On what date was N.Z. Future Forest Products Ltd's application to the Provincial Growth Fund lodged, and when did he first become aware that N.Z. Future Forest Products Ltd had applied to the Provincial Growth Fund?

Hon SHANE JONES (Minister for Regional Economic Development): I am advised the application was lodged on 8 April. I found out that the application was coming to Ministers for consideration on 14 October.

He was rightly pulled up for not answering, so refined it to saying that he "became aware that the company had applied to the Provincial Growth Fund on 14 October." Which seems like a straight answer. Except when asked whether he had not been aware of the application at any time over the 6 month interval in between, he refused to give a straight answer, and talked only of when he became "formally" aware. And he clung to that when asked repeatedly whether he was informally aware, or aware in any way of the application whatsoever.

At any time, Jones could have ended speculation over his guilt by simply saying that no, he was not aware. His repeated refusal to do so invites the conclusion that he was, and that he behaved corruptly by not immediately declaring a conflict of interest and recusing himself. If he's not corrupt, he is working very, very hard to look that way, and he has no-one to blame but himself for the conclusions the public draw from his non-answers.

Climate Change: We need to end fossil fuels

Finally, governments seem slowly to be beginning to act on climate change. But its not enough. While they're publicly signing up to targets, they're planning to destroy the world by continuing fossil fuel extraction:

The world’s nations are on track to produce more than twice as much coal, oil and gas as can be burned in 2030 while restricting rise in the global temperature to 1.5C, analysis shows.

The report is the first to compare countries’ stated plans for fossil fuel extraction with the goals of the Paris climate agreement, which is to keep global heating well below 2C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim for 1.5C. It exposes a huge gap, with fossil fuel production in 2030 heading for 50% more than is consistent with 2C, and 120% more than that for 1.5C.

[...]

“We’re in a deep hole – and we need to stop digging,” said Måns Nilsson, executive director of the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), which was part of the analysis. “Despite more than two decades of climate policymaking, fossil fuel production levels are higher than ever.”

Its not enough to target fossil fuel demand with carbon prices and electric car policies and phase-outs of power stations: we need to directly target supply as well, and cut it off. New Zealand has begun this process by ending offshore oil exploration, but that doesn't go nearly far enough: we need to end extraction as well, and not just for oil and gas, but for coal too. And its not just New Zealand; we need a global fossil fuels non-proliferation treaty to manage this industry down to a level consistent with human survival.

Of course, that means bursting the carbon bubble, and admitting that fossil fuel companies are valueless, because their balance sheets are based on "reserves" which can never be extracted and sold. And that means a lot of rich people (and suckers) will lose a lot of money, which in turn will mean a lot of screaming and lobbying to prevent it. But its going to happen one way or another, either by planned government action or when the markets finally admit it to themselves. And on that front, planned is almost certainly better, but it means politicians get directly blamed for it. And to be honest, I just don't think our establishment, Status quo parties are up for that. Which means if we want to save ourselves, we need to get rid of them first.

As bad as we expected

Stuff has begun interviewing NZ First's secret donors, and it turns out that its as bad as we expected. They start with racing industry figure Garry Chittick, who is predictably grumpy about NZ First's coalition choices. Meanwhile, I'm looking at the list of pork NZ First has effectively given its secret donors - tax breaks, grants, more gambling money - and thinking that this is an influence that needed to be declared. Because it looks like a bunch of people in the racing industry invested in a politician to get government kickbacks, and that stinks. And then there's this bit:

But there were other large donations, many of which are from companies and individuals who work in industries that have benefited from the $3 billion Provincial Growth Fund. Stuff is not suggesting any wrongdoing on the part of the donors, and it may be that those industries would have benefited regardless.

Sure, they might have. But the fact their donations were kept secret gives it a certain odour of corruption.

Meanwhile, the government has ruled out any real change to election finance laws [audio, 55s in], and are quite happy with the status quo. But as Andrew Geddis pointed out the other day, if the status quo permits this, we have a real problem. And if the government is refusing to fix it, then that invites the conclusion that the problem extends further than NZ First, and that we need to fix them too.

Winston is the PM's problem

In Question Time today the Prime Minister was naturally facing questions about Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters and his dubious party financing arrangements, which seem to violate electoral finance law. Her response was to pretend that it was nothing to do with her, and that she is not responsible for Peters' conduct in that capacity. But she's lying. As Prime Minister, Ardern is responsible for the conduct of her Ministers. And the rules on that conduct are pretty explicit:

A Minister of the Crown, while holding a ministerial warrant, acts in a number of different capacities:

a. in a ministerial capacity, making decisions and determining and promoting policy within particular portfolios;
b. in a political capacity as a member of Parliament, representing a constituency or particular community of interest; and
c. in a personal capacity.

In all these roles and at all times, Ministers are expected to act lawfully and to behave in a way that upholds, and is seen to uphold, the highest ethical standards. This includes exercising a professional approach and good judgement in their interactions with the public and officials, and in all their communications, personal and professional. Ultimately, Ministers are accountable to the Prime Minister for their behaviour.

[Emphasis added]

...and the Prime Minister is accountable to Parliament, and to the people.

Its fine for the PM to say that the Electoral Commission is investigating, and to withhold judgement until then. But its not fine for her to pretend its not her problem. And the longer she does, the more crooked she looks. But hey, if she wants to bleed out like Helen Clark defending the indefensible, then that's her problem.

Australia's secret prisoner

A prisoner stripped of their name, imprisoned for a secret crime after a secret trial, with all details legally suppressed for secret reasons. A story by Kafka or Dumas? China? No, its just the latest stage of Australian tyranny:

An Australian citizen was prosecuted, convicted, and jailed in the ACT last year in a process completely hidden from public scrutiny.

It is understood the prisoner, given a pseudonym of Alan Johns, was a military intelligence officer, but details about his crime and background have been kept secret.

The very existence of his case remained hidden until earlier this month, when a dispute between him and prison authorities about a draft memoir he had written found its way into the ACT supreme court.

He is apparently now free (and tweeting, though he's clear that what he can say is limited by law). But the fact that this even happened is appalling. It violates the fundamental value of open justice, and comes close to being a forced disappearance (a crime in international law).

If this can happen once, it can happen again. Australians should be very, very worried about the direction their country is taking.

Bridges should put his money where his mouth is

Stuff has more details on what New Zealand First's slush-fund has been funding, with much of the spending directly benefiting the party. Which makes it look a lot like hidden donations, rather than the completely-innocent-giant-pile-of-cash Winston is trying to portray it as. The Electoral Commission is now investigating, but Simon Bridges doesn't think its enough:

Bridges was highly critical of both Peters and Ardern over the saga.

He said the Prime Minister needed to show leadership on this issue, and make sure it was thoroughly and independently investigated because it goes to the heart of New Zealand's democracy.

The Electoral Commission is looking into the allegations, but Bridges said that body was a "toothless tiger".

"It ultimately does not have anything like the powers to deal with this."

Which sounds like he supports change. Which is great, because there's an Electoral Amendment Bill before the Justice Committee right now which could be amended. If Bridges wants greater transparency and more enforcement powers for the Electoral Commission, he should put his money where his mouth is and publicly suggest appropriate amendments. The government will be basicly backed into a corner on this and be forced to either support them, or taint themselves with the public by backing the obviously broken status quo. But of course Bridges won't, because the last thing any establishment party wants to do is let the public know who is bribing them...

The APEC police state enabling bill

I've joked before about how hosting international summits effectively turns part of your country into a police state for the duration. Well, New Zealand is hosting APEC in 2021, with events throughout the year in Christchurch, Wellington, and Auckland. And the government has put up a bill to give itself police-state powers for those events. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC 2021) Bill allows the government to put the army on the streets as "police" with full arrest and search powers, let foreign security staff bring pistols and automatic weapons into New Zealand and use them, arbitarily close buildings, roads and public places, require proof of identification ("papers, please") from anyone wanting to enter, jam WiFi and any other radio communications. Appeals against these decisions are strictly limited, with no appeal against closures, removals or most other decisions permitted. And of course the government will not compensate anyone for the disruption or any abuse of rights.

(Coincidentally, unless Winston explodes prematurely, this will all be happening smack-bang in the middle of an election campaign, with the potential to disrupt access to advance polling places. Oh joy).

But what about the Bill of Rights? The bill overrides it, along with every other Act. There's no BORA vet on the bill available yet, but I expect our supine Attorney-General will rubberstamp it in the name of "security", just like he did for control orders. But we've hosted such events in the past without this sort of statutory violence to our constitution and way of life, so you really have to ask why it is all necessary.

More generally, if the security requirements of hosting such meetings require this sort of sustained violation of of human rights, the price is not worth paying and we should not host them. If Jacinda Ardern wants to wear a silly jacket and hob-nob with the elite, she should do it somewhere else, somewhere which doesn't require her to impose a police state on New Zealanders for the duration. Because the elite's networking and photo opportunities are not worth a single compromise to our human rights, and anyone who tells you they are is simply pushing feudalism.

Still denying responsibility

Stuff's story on NZDF's negligence around its Afghan firing ranges has produced a result, with a commitment from the Prime Minister for an urgent cleanup. But this doesn't mean NZDF is accepting responsibility for the deaths and injuries that have occured - they're still refusing compensation. Which given that the sums involved are so trivial on a government level, just seems petty, a further effort to deny responsibility. But it is our responsibility: we accepted it when we sent troops to Afghanistan and took over those ranges. And even if it was someone else's grenade which killed those children, its still our fault for not cleaning it up, and we have accepted as much by accepting the full cleanup costs. This just smacks of the usual NZDF arse-covering and reluctance to acknowledge responsibility.

Unfortunately, its also looking like NZDF has engaged in its usual behaviour towards Ministers, their bosses. NZDF has said they received a report from Human Rights Watch about deaths and injuries on the firing ranges last year, which apparently spurred some action and resulted in a briefing to the PM on the issue. But she said on Morning Report this morning that she was not informed of any possibility of deaths. Did NZDF bullshit her, massaging the truth to equivocate away civilian casualties, as they did over Operation Burnham? I expect Stuff already has an OIA in for that briefing (if they don't already have it), so we'll find out eventually. Unless NZDF tries to hide it under "national security", of course.

But I'm also wondering why Ministers continue to tolerate NZDF, given that all they seem to do is leave these stinking messes around for people to tread in. Whenever they go overseas, they fuck up, and Ministers are left to deal with the fallout. Which suggests keeping them on a short leash, at home, is necessary to keep them under proper supervision.

A corrupt practice

Last week RNZ broke the news on NZ First's mysterious "foundation" and its dodgy-looking loans. The arrangement seemed to be designed to evade the transparency requirements of the Electoral Act, by laundering donations. But now Stuff has acquired some of their financial records, and it gone from dodgy to outright criminal:

Almost half a million dollars in political donations appear to have been hidden inside a secret slush fund controlled by a coterie of Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters' trusted advisers.

The secretive New Zealand First Foundation collected donations from wealthy donors and used the money to finance election campaigns, pay for an MP's legal advice, advertising, fund a $5000 day at the Wellington races and even pay an IRD bill.

[...]

Stuff has seen records for the foundation that suggest there have been breaches of the Electoral Act and that the foundation is being used to obscure political donations to the NZ First Party.

Donors to the foundation are primary industry leaders, wealthy investors and multi-millionaires.

One legal commentator, public law expert Graeme Edgeler who also saw the records, believes there would be different consequences under the Electoral Act depending on whether the party and foundation are separate entities or connected.

In either scenario, Edgeler concluded the Electoral Act had likely been broken.

The big offence here is making a false electoral donation return - a corrupt practice if done knowingly, but merely an illegal practice if the result of negligence and other people's lies. And with that on the line, you can see why their party president suddenly quit rather than sign the financial statements.

Stuff appears to have evidence that funds were given to the foundation as "donations", and then used to directly pay party expenses. Some of these donations were split up to avoid the declaration threshold - suggesting a belief they were going to a political party (not to mention corrupt intent on the donor's part). Which suggests other criminal offences as well. But because politicians write the law to suit themselves, there's an extraordinarily short time window for prosecution, and many of the offences may not be able to be prosecuted. Still, the Electoral Commission needs to investigate, and bring charges if it finds anything. Anything less would simply be a betrayal of our democracy.

Corruption as usual

Next year is an election year, and Labour needs money to fund its campaign. So naturally, they're selling access:

Labour is charging wealthy business figures $1500-a-head to lunch with Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern at its annual conference later this month.

[...]

On the weekend beginning November 29th, around 800 delegates will gather at the Whanganui War Memorial Centre, for the convention.

Also on the guest list are a select number of business guests, who will spend the day at a business conference and lunch with Ardern.

Eight MPs will give presentations and all MPs are invited. Stuff understands Education Minister Chris Hipkins and Broadcasting Minister Kris Faafoi are expected to attend.

Officially, they're all attending in a "personal capacity" of course. But the only reason anyone is interested in talking to them is because they hold public office. They are exploiting that office for party profit. Their "excuse" that they're only selling themselves a little compared to the previous government is unacceptable. What they are doing is corrupt and wrong, and any politician who engages in it should be prosecuted for soliciting a bribe.

Fairer rentals

Yesterday the government announced its changes to tenancy laws, including an end to no-cause evictions, limits on rent increases, and anonyminity for tenants who defend their rights against bad landlords (sadly necessary because landlords are scum who maintain blacklists of "uppity" tenants). They're all good moves, and have resulted in the usual squeals from landleeches, who think it will be the end of the world if they are required to treat people with basic fairness and dignity. And they're making the usual threats of people "leaving the industry", which they seem to think is a Bad Thing. Its not. Every house owned by a landleech is a hoarded house. If they sell, then those hoarded houses will end up in the hands of people who want to use them as homes, not investments - pushing house prices lower in the process. And I don't see how society loses at all by that.