Sunday, October 16, 2005

Wishful thinking or outright deceit?

Hint to National: when making a coalition offer to another party which is predicated on the support of others, make sure those others actually support you. Alternatively, bury them in a dark dungeon somewhere, so no-one can find out otherwise. But for Cthulhu's sake, don't let them come out and say "huh?", because otherwise you'll look like you're (at best) suffering from a severe case of wishful thinking, or (at worst) a pack of deceitful arseholes.

But I see it's already too late for that:

NZ First leader Winston Peters will today be considering "a very brief letter" sent to his officeby National last Friday night, apparently suggesting National had the numbers to form a government with NZ First's support.

But the Maori Party and United Future have denied guaranteeing any such support.


But Maori Party co-leader Tariana Turia strenuously denied any arrangement had been brokered with National.

And co-leader Pita Sharples insisted last Thursday that the party was still open to supporting Labour on confidence and supply in return for policy concessions.

United Future leader Peter Dunne said his party was negotiating in good faith with Labour and would not be talking with National on the same basis unless Labour was finally unable to form a government.

"We haven't reached that point yet and [National] knows that. It is not the simple truth to say National has 57 votes locked up," he said.

Which raises the question: are National total amateurs, or are they simply trying to lie their way into power by trying to present themselves as a fait acompli? Though given their blind insistence that tax cuts are still affordable despite the Reserve Bank's warning, I'd go with the latter.


It's interesting that the two parties that have the numbers to determine the government are the Maori Party and NZ First.

If either the Maori Party or NZ First make a decision to not go with National - that it for the possibility of a right government. I.e both have a veto over a right-wing government.

But either could help form a Centre-left government. Labour/Progressive/Green/Maori or Labour/Progressice/Green/NZ First.

United Future has little negotiating power. If could veto a National government, but it's numbers are not vital to a Labour-led government.

Posted by Anonymous : 10/16/2005 07:23:00 PM

Woops, sorry about the spelling and the 'it's' in that comment. And I'm an English major too :(

Posted by Anonymous : 10/16/2005 07:24:00 PM

You know, for a minute there I thought a Maori-Nat-NZF coalition would be great: the whole thing would collapse in a few months, the parties having lost major credibility and seriously weakened for the forseeable future. Pity it was all a big fakeout, those tricksty Nats.

Posted by Anonymous : 10/17/2005 11:47:00 AM

If you ask me, the Nats are showing Strauss* fatigue- oops, I mean, stress.

Craig Y.


Posted by Anonymous : 10/17/2005 03:37:00 PM

And here's an interesting admission from one Irwin Stelzer, of the US neoconservative Hudson Institute, in a recent collection of US neocon essays, on neocons and economic policy:

'Actually, extensive tax cuts will result in some damage to central government social services'

See: I.Stelzer in "Neoconservatism and Economic Policy" in I.Stelzer (ed) Neoconservatism: New York:
Atlantic Books: 2004.

Craig Y.

Posted by Anonymous : 10/17/2005 03:40:00 PM