Last year, the International Energy Association warned us that the world needed to cease all new fossil fuel development immediately if we wanted to reach net-zero by 2050. That still leaves the problem of phasing out existing production, though. Now, a think-tank has recommended that the richest countries end all production by 2034:
Rich countries must end all oil and gas production in the next 12 years, while the poorest nations should be given 28 years, to provide a fair transition away from fossil fuels, according to a study.This proposal would put New Zealand in the second group, with a phase out by 2039. Interestingly, business-as-usual will see almost all existing oil and gas mining permits expire by 2037, so this is actually slower than we are expecting. But this is only for a 50% chance of avoiding catastrophe, which is pretty shit odds (basicly worse than playing Russian roulette, and with human civilisation on the line), so we need to move faster. Which means we need to legislate to end those mining permits early, as quickly as possible. If we are to have a future, then the fossil fuel industry cannot.The report, led by Prof Kevin Anderson from the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at Manchester University, found that wealthy countries such as the UK, US and Australia had until 2034 to stop all oil and gas production to give the world a 50% chance of preventing devastating climate breakdown, while the poorest nations that are also heavily reliant on fossil fuels should be given until 2050.
