Germany keeps the fascists out

Germans went to the polls today, in what looks to be their most important election since 1945. The good news is that they seem to have kept the fascists out, with the Putin/Trump/Musk-backed Alternative für Deutschland coming second and effectively excluded from power. Instead, it looks like a Christian Democrat / Social Democrat coalition is the only viable government - the Greens don't have the numbers to get the CDU to a majority, and no left coalition is possible. Which will be bad for the Social Democrats again, but there are definitely far worse coalition outcomes.

The presumptive chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has made it clear that he is unhappy with Trump and Musk's attempted election interference, and that he considers the alliance with America to be dead. Which is a hell of a turnaround in a country that used to be a core US ally. But I guess that's what happens when America starts betraying its friends, and if it means a Europe which is no longer a US vassal, but instead stands for its own interests, that doesn't sound like a terrible thing at all.

As for AfD, they've already been classified as an extremist organisation by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, and there's a real possibility of the party being banned. That of course doesn't solve the problem of its voters, who will no doubt simply switch their allegiance to whatever neo-Nazi vehicle Putin/Trump/Musk fund for them next. So hopefully Germany's new government will put some work into defending German values and stopping the AfD's radicalisation pathway (rather than the present tactic of trying to imitate them).

A transformative government in Germany

Back in September Germans went to the polls, and handed the politicians a tough job, with no easy majorities for anyone. The Social Democrats, Free Democrats, and Greens agreed to work together in a "traffic light" coalition, but given their political differences (its basicly ACT/Greens/Labour), expectations for real change were low. But amazingly, they seem to have reached an agreement for an actual transformative government with big changes. Making Germany carbon-neutral by 2045 (rather than 2050), phasing out coal by 2030 (rather than 2038) and gas by 2040, legalising recreational cannabis, lowering the voting age to 16, and a significantly increased minimum wage. Its the sort of program that even a red-green German government could be proud of.

Meanwhile, compare this to New Zealand, where the ostensibly progressive Labour party won an unthinkable majority government in 2020 and are in a position to do anything they want, and are choosing to do... nothing. Instead, it seems they want to keep things exactly the same for as long as possible. Looking at Germany, I think we're getting a raw deal here.

Progress in Europe

There's a lot of votes in Europe today, and the headline after the German election is that the Swiss have voted overwhelmingly for marriage equality in a referendum:

Swiss voters have decided by a clear margin to allow same-sex couples to marry, in a referendum that brings the Alpine nation into line with many others in western Europe.

Official results showed the measure passed with 64.1% of voters in favour and won a majority in all of Switzerland’s 26 cantons.

Switzerland’s parliament and the governing federal council supported the “Marriage for All” measure, and pre-referendum polls showed solid backing. Switzerland has authorised same-sex civil partnerships since 2007.

Its good news, which officially brings Switzerland into the civilised world while further marginalising the bigot-states. Marriages should start in a couple of months.

And in other good news, Berlin voted to expropriate its large corporate landlords. Its a non-binding referendum, but the acid is really going to be on the politicians to obey. And San Marino finally legalised abortion.

Denmark's traitorous spies

Denmark has been spying on Germany for the NSA:

Denmark's secret service helped the US National Security Agency (NSA) to spy on European leaders, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, a European media investigation published on Sunday revealed.

The disclosure that the US had been spying on its allies first started coming to light in 2013, but it is only now that journalists have gained access to reports detailing the support given to the NSA by the Danish Defense Intelligence Service (FE).

The report showed that Germany's close ally and neighbor cooperated with US spying operations that targeted the chancellor and president.

The then chancellor candidate for the German center-left socialist party (SPD), Peer Steinbrück, was also a target, the new report disclosed.

As the article notes, we'd known they were cooperating with the Americans to spy within the EU since 2013. What's new is the targets, which are explosive. And its not just Germany that was targetted: the article says they also spied on politicians in Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands and France.

The good news is that the Danish government sacked the entire leadership of the FE last year over this. But the fact it even happened is highly disturbing, and really makes you wonder who the EU's spy agencies are really loyal to: their own European governments, or their American "allies". And of course it raises similar questions about who our spies are really working for, and how many of our friends they're spying on for America.

Climate Change: The young win in Germany

Over the past few years there has been a spate of court cases over climate change, as young people have turned to the courts to protect the future. And in Germany, they've just won, with the constitutional court ruling that climate measures need to be strengthened to protect future generations:

In a groundbreaking ruling, the judges of the Karlsruhe court, Germany’s highest, said the government now had until the end of next year to improve its Climate Protection Act, passed in 2019, and to ensure it met 2030 greenhouse gas reduction goals more immediately.

[...]

The judges ruled that young people’s “fundamental rights to a human future” were threatened and that the law in its current state jeopardised their freedom because the goals set were too focused on dates too far in the future. It said that it was only possible to reduce the rise in average global temperatures to between 1.5C and 2C – as set out in the 2015 Paris agreement – with “more urgent and shorter term measures”.

“The challenged rules violate the freedoms of the complainants, some of whom are still very young,” the judges said in a statement. They added: “Virtually every freedom is potentially affected by these future emission reduction obligations because almost every area of human life is associated with the emission of greenhouse gases and is therefore threatened by drastic restrictions after 2030.”

Germany's Climate Protection Act is a Zero Carbon Act-style framework. As with New Zealand, the German government backloaded its emissions cuts to go soft on current polluters. Now the court has called bullshit on that, they're going to have to do something real.

Could such a ruling happen here? Probably not under the BORA - its not supreme law and can't overturn other laws. But there's certainly ample scope for review of interim budgets and targets under the Zero Carbon Act, and a challenge is virtually certain if the initial ones are not seen as ambitious enough.

Breaking the cordon sanitaire in Germany

Part of the story of the Nazis' rise to power in Germany was the willingness of mainstream right-wing parties to work with them to keep out the left. Because of this, one of the fundamental rules of postwar German politics has been "do not work with Nazis". As a result, successive far-right parties have found themselves isolated, unable to get anywhere. Until yesterday, when the "mainstream" Christian Democrats and Free Democrats colluded with (neo-Nazi) Alternative für Deutschland to roll the left-wing Thuringian state premier. But it hasn't worked out like they expected:

A German state premier elected with help from the far-right Alternative für Deutschland has announced he will step down, succumbing to widespread outrage across the country and condemnation from Angela Merkel.

A postwar consensus among established parties of shunning the far right was broken on Wednesday when Thomas Kemmerich won the election in the eastern state of Thuringia on the back of votes from the chancellor’s Christian Democratic Union and the aggressively nationalistic AfD.

The little-known Free Democrat (FDP) politician told German media on Thursday morning that he was right to have accepted the mandate, arguing that fresh elections would merely play into the hands of the far right and the far left.

By lunchtime, however, after a meeting with his party leader, Christian Lindner, Kemmerich had changed his mind. “Resignation is unavoidable,” he said. “Democrats need democratic majorities.”

To their credit, national party leaders acted quickly to stomp this, recognising the huge damage it would do to their reputations, and the Free Democrats leader will be facing an internal confidence vote as a result. But some of that damage has already been done, and its a reminder that to the right, racism and death camps is better than higher taxes and labour rights.

As for Thuringia, its unclear whether they will call a new confidence vote, or new elections. If the latter, then hopefully the right-wing parties will be punished for their collaboration.

New Zealand landlords have it easy

Landlords and house-hoarders are whining about the prospect of a capital gains tax forcing them to pay their fair share. But in Berlin, they have a different solution to controlling rising rents: forced expropriation:

Thousands of Berlin residents took to the streets on Saturday to vent anger over surging rents and demand the expropriation of more than 200,000 apartments sold off to big private landlords, which they blame for changing the character of the city.

Activists have started collecting signatures for a ballot proposal that would require the city to take back properties from any landlord that owns more than 3,000 apartments. Polls suggest such a measure could pass, forcing the city to consider spending billions of euros buying privatized housing back.

Demonstrators marched through the city center under a giant model shark. Banners read "against rent sharks and speculators".

"We have had very bad experiences with these property companies for years, and we know that they answer to their shareholders and not to tenants. We don't want them in our city any more," organizer Rouzbeh Taheri told Reuters television.

Unmentioned in that article: the expropriation would be at less than current market value, depriving corporate landleeches of windfall profits and capturing that value for the people.

The campaign needs only 200,000 signatures to force a referendum, which the polls say they'll win. I'm hoping they succeed. Because nobody likes a tax-cheating absentee landlord, no matter where they are, and the precedent on how to deal with them will be useful.

Germany must investigate US drone murders

For the past 15 years the US has been murdering people all over Africa, Asia and the Middle East with drone strikes. At their best, these drone-strikes are simply outright assassinations. At their worst, they are indiscriminate murders or political killings of non-combatants - basicly, an airborne death squad. It is doubtful whether this policy of murder complies with international law. And now, a German court has ruled that that country's government can't just look the other way on it:

Three Yemeni men have scored a partial success after suing Germany for its apparent role in drone attacks that killed relatives. The plaintiffs want Berlin to stop the US using German territory to relay information.

A court in Münster on Tuesday ruled partly in favor of three plaintiffs from Yemen who believe that their relatives were killed in a 2012 US drone strike that was relayed via an airbase in Germany.

The Münster Higher Administrative Court ruled that the German government must take "appropriate measures" to ascertain whether US operations conducted via the Ramstein Air Base are in line with international law.

The court ruled that Berlin should also, if necessary, press Washington to adhere to international law on drone strikes.

There's more details here, but the short version is that the German government can no longer accept US assurances that everything is legal. Its unclear what would happen if the US refuses to cooperate with the required investigations, or they find that it is violating international law, but its not unthinkable that it could be ordered to cease any support for drone operations from German territory.

There's also implications here for New Zealand. Like Germany, we have a statutorily affirmed right to life which is binding on every action of any part of our government. And like Germany, parts of our government are providing tacit cooperation with US drone murders (in our case, far more directly: the GCSB provides them with information as part of the Five Eyes, and in 2014 the Prime Minister admitted that that information may have been used to murder people). The German ruling suggests that the GCSB can't just rely on US assurances of legality, but must actively investigate to ensure we are not assisting in an arbitrary deprivation of life or other violation of international law. The question is, who is going to make them do that?

There was no "rebellion" in Catalonia

Two weeks ago, exiled Catalan President Carles Puigdemont was detained under a European Arrest Warrant in Germany. He's been in prison for the last two weeks while the court goes through the early stages of deciding whether he can be extradited on charges of sedition, rebellion, and misuse of public funds for his role in organising Catalonia's brutally suppressed independence referendum. But there's good news today: a German court has declared that he cannot be extradited on the rebellion charge:

Puigdemont was arrested on a Spanish-issued warrant upon entering Germany on 25 March as he attempted to drive from Finland to Belgium, where he currently resides. Spain accuses the Catalan separatist of rebellion and corruption after he organised an unsanctioned independence referendum.

The Schleswig court said that it considered a charge of misuse of public funds sufficient grounds for an extradition, but that a charge of “rebellion” was not, because the comparable German charge of treason specifies violence.

Proceedings to decide whether to extradite him on corruption charges could continue, it said.

Or to put it another way: Puigdemont is innocent of "rebellion" because the only violence in Catalonia was perpetrated by the Spanish government. It's significant because it means that if he is extradited, Spain cannot try him for that crime any more. When faced with this prospect in Belgium last year, Spain withdrew their arrest warrant (effectively gaming the European Arrest Warrant system in an effort to shop for jurisdiction). But now there's an actual court ruling on record calling their charges bullshit, and if they try that again, other courts will be able to take formal notice of it. Whoops.

Meanwhile, Belgium has opened an investigation into the Spanish intelligence services for illegally spying on their territory. It turns out that using a geotracker on someone's car is illegal without a warrant in Belgium. Whether a Spanish warrant is sufficient (or whether there even is one) is an open question, but hopefully it will cause Spain to think more carefully about spying on Catalan exiles in future.

Unnatural partnerships

Post-election, there was a sustained campaign in the media from National supporters for the Greens to support National to cling to power for another term. One of their arguments was to point to Germany, where Green - Christian Democrat coalitions have been tried at a regional level, and such an arrangement looked like the only possible outcome in the wake of the German elections. Except that hasn't worked out so well...

Exploratory talks to form Germany’s next coalition government were on the verge of collapse on Sunday night after the four parties involved missed their own deadline to resolve differences on migration and energy policy.

Chancellor Angela Merkel has been trying to forge a coalition between her Christian Democratic Union (CDU), its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU), the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Green party following federal elections at the end of September.

A so-called “Jamaica” coalition – so nicknamed because the parties’ traditional colours mirror that of the Jamaican flag – represents new ground even for Germany’s experienced leader, and has only previously been tested at regional level.

The key sticking points are immigration and climate change, with the parties unable to find common ground on either. And this in a country where the political mainstream is greener than ours. In Germany, they're in a four party situation (thanks in part to the CDU maintaining a regional partner party), but in New Zealand some of those parties are effectively factions within the National Party. And its hard to imagine National's farmer-yokels or climate change refuseniks accepting Green demands for real action on water or the climate, let alone allowing them to be implemented effectively.

Basicly, unnatural political partnerships are difficult and likely to fail. In Germany, they've been forced to explore the option because successive grand coalitions turned voters against the political establishment. And even then, it looks to have failed. In New Zealand, where there's no such pressure, there's no reason for parties with choices to take the risk. National's long-term problem of course is that now it has no friends, it has no choices, so it will be perpetually begging for such an unnatural partnership - and is likely to be perpetually rejected if there's any credible alternative.

It could be worse

While New Zealand's post-election negotiations look unpleasant, they could be worse. Germans voted today in federal elections, and dealt their parties a really shit hand:

Germany is braced for a period of fraught and protracted coalition talks after Sunday’s elections left an unprecedented number of parties jostling for influence in the next parliament.

With Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, the centre-left Social Democratic party (SPD), rightwing populist Alternative für Deutschland, pro-business FDP, leftwing Die Linke and the Green party, six parties will crowd into the Bundestag’s plenary chamber, a first since the introduction of a 5% hurdle for parliamentary seats in 1953.

Having gained the largest percentage of the vote despite her party suffering its worst result since 1949, Merkel’s CDU will still need to find one or more coalition partners in order to find a governing majority, or pursue a minority government.

AfD are Nazis, and everyone has ruled out working with them. The CDU won't work with the Left, and vice-versa. The SDP has already refused to sign up for another suicidal grand coalition. So the only viable government seems to be the Christian Democrat / Free Democrat / Green "Jamaica" coalition. In NZ terms, that's National-ACT-Green, which gives you an idea of how likely it is. And yet, this is the hand the politicians have been dealt, and they need to find some way of making it work. And in Germany they can't just call another election in the hope of getting a better deal...

Equality comes to Germany

Over the weekend the German Parliament voted for marriage equality:

German MPs have voted in favour of legalising same-sex marriage, prompting joyous and unusual scenes in parliament as Green party politicians tossed glittered confetti across the chamber and gay couples sitting in the public gallery kissed and embraced.

The vote by 393 to 226, with four abstentions, followed 40 minutes of often heated and highly emotional debate, reflecting a wider, decades-long argument over marriage equality. The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, voted against the move, despite having paved the way for the law’s passage by inviting MPs to vote according to their conscience.

Like New Zealand getting MMP, this appears to have come about by accident: Merkel made some comments in the media about it being time to vote on the issue in an effort to pre-position herself to accept marriage equality as the price of government in a future coalition deal, but the Social Democrats called her bluff and got a bill up quickly. And so suddenly Germany has joined the modern world. Which leaves Italy as the next major target in Europe.

Correcting the wrongs of the past

Germany is to pardon and compensate victims of a Nazi-era anti-homosexual law:

Germany’s parliament has voted to quash the convictions of 50,000 gay men sentenced for homosexuality under a Nazi-era law that remained in force after the second world war.

After decades of lobbying, victims and activists hailed a triumph in the struggle to clear the names of gay men who lived with a criminal record under article 175 of the penal code.

An estimated 5,000 of those found guilty under the statute are still alive. The measure overwhelmingly passed the Bundestag lower house of parliament, where chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition enjoys a large majority.

It also offers gay men convicted under the law a lump sum of €3,000 (£2,600) as well as an additional €1,500 for each year they spent in prison.

Note that this isn't about Nazi crimes - those convicted under the Nazi regime had their convictions overturned in 2002. Its for those punished under the law between 1945 and its repeal in 1968 or 1994 (for east and West Germany respectively). This law was wrong, and it is entirely right that those punished under it receive an apology and compensation (though €1,500 for a year in prison is derisory).

Meanwhile, where's New Zealand? National promised to overturn past convictions for homosexuality back in February, but no bill has been introduced to the House yet. And of course its on a case-by-case basis (meaning you need to grovel for justice), and there's no talk of an apology or compensation for the state's abuse of power. I guess righting these past wrongs simply isn't a priority for the National Party...

Climate change: who's serious?

One of the more odious things about the US (other than their habit of bombing children all over the world) is their belief that everyone else in the world is a slacker and a cheat. And it's on perfect display with Energy Secretary Rick Perry's comments on the Paris Agreement:

During a speech in New York, Mr Perry also criticised Germany, which has mothballed nuclear plants leaving it more reliant on dirty coal, saying: “Don’t sign an agreement and expect us to stay in if you’re not really going to participate and be a part of it.

“We need to renegotiate it. They need to get serious.”

Here's some facts: the US's Paris target - which they will fail to meet - is a 28% reduction from 2005 emissions levels by 2025 (or about 10% from 1990 in honest numbers). Germany's targets - which they have a credible plan to meet - are 40% by 2020 and 95% by 2050, both relative to 1990 emissions levels. I think its pretty obvious which one of these countries is serious about climate change, and it isn't the USA.

Abolishing lese majeste in Germany

Lese majeste - the "crime" of insulting rulers - is a holdover from feudalism and antithetical to democracy. Germany has finally recognised that and is planning to abolish its lese majeste law:

Germany has decided to abolish a law which defends the honour of foreign leaders.

International heads of state will no longer be able to ask the German government to prosecute people deemed to have offended them under an obscure passage of German law.

The decision comes just days after Donald Trump's inauguration as US President and a year after Angela Merkel authorised the investigation of a TV comic who wrote a crude poem about Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

It also comes five years after the European Court of Human Rights effectively gutted lese majeste laws in Otegi Mondragon v. Spain. Which really makes you ask "what took them so long"?

Climate change: Leadership

While the New Zealand government has set itself a pathetic climate change target (and plans to meet it by cooking the books), the Germans are showing us how its done:

Germany’s coalition government has reached an agreement on a climate change action plan which involves reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80 to 95% by 2050, a spokesperson said on Friday.

The plan, which will require German industry to reduce its CO2 emission by a fifth by 2030, and Germany’s energy sector to reduce emissions by almost a half, will be reviewed in 2018 with a view to its impact on jobs and society.

“Especially the sector targets, included in the climate protection plan, will be subject to a comprehensive impact assessment,” government spokesperson Georg Streiter said at a news conference. He said the government agreed that the reduction targets could be adjusted in 2018.

These are the sorts of cuts that are actually necessary to beat this problem. And the government committing to them will force the market to find solutions. The contrast with New Zealand's foot-dragging couldn't be greater.

New Fisk

We love to talk of terror – but after the Munich shooting, this hypocritical catch-all term has finally caught us out

New Fisk

After the Chilcot report, we'll hear the New Testament – the gospel according to Saint Tony
Of course Germany refused to deny the Armenian genocide

Germany and Sweden help US assassinations

The US programme of drone warfare is a war crime, an indiscriminate use of force against a civilian population. Yet Germany and Sweden are both apparently participating in it:

Two European allies of the United States have been directly participating in so-called kill decisions against insurgents in Afghanistan despite rules prohibiting them from doing so, according to two senior Western officials with knowledge of the operations.

The accusations concern airstrikes, mostly by drones, that American officials have justified as part of a lasting counterterrorism mission agreed to with the Afghan government. However, some of the strikes have come under question as being far more aggressive than the security deal allows for.

The two countries said to be improperly involved in approving strike decisions — Germany, a NATO member of the coalition in Afghanistan, and Sweden, which is not a member of NATO — as well as a spokesman for the American-led military coalition all denied that anyone other than the United States military had been involved in targeting insurgents.

But the two senior officials said that the issue, which has not been publicly disclosed previously, has been quietly increasing tensions between the American military and its NATO and other allies. And the accusations are likely to cause a particular stir in Germany, where constitutional rules forbid offensive military operations in most cases and where human rights groups have joined lawsuits that alleged even indirect German assistance for American drone strikes.

Both Germany and Sweden are parties to the European Convention on Human Rights, which affirms a right to life - and there's ECHR case-law that this binds parties' military forces overseas. And given the German constitution, lawsuits over this are inevitable - not to mention political fallout. Again, it looks like the German military have got out of control, as a direct consequence of collaborating with their "allies". And that is likely to have a serious political cost.

Freedom of the press wins in Germany

Two weeks ago we learned that the German government was investigating news website Netzpolitik.org on treason charges for publising stories exposing government surveillance plans. But now it has been made public, the chief prosecutor has been fired and the investigation has been terminated:

On Monday the federal prosecutor’s office said it was closing the case because it believed the leaked documents on which the website’s reports were based were not a “state secret”, and that other conditions for treason charges had not been met.

The inquiry, which was opened after a criminal complaint filed by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, also targeted the unidentified source of the leaked documents. Monday’s statement said investigating the source would now be a matter for lower-ranking local prosecutors.

Beckedahl suggested the decision to drop the inquiry was not enough. “We want to know precisely whether we were subject to surveillance measures during the almost three-month investigation,” he said. Beckedahl said he hoped the case would motivate authorities to improve protection for whistleblowers in Germany.

Good. But its not enough. Apart from the questions of surveillance, the BfV needs to be held responsible for laying the complaint as well. Germany's spies need to learn that journalism and holding them to account is not treason.