Wednesday, September 21, 2005

Doing the numbers

Scoop has an online special vote calculator, so you can plug in the numbers and work out who will be able to form a government once the specials are counted.

I'm sure Don and Helen have people busy doing that right this minute...


I was having fun having a election with 9000% valid special votes all going to Destiny Church !
Or if the Maori party get 20% of the specials and everything else stays the same.

Speaking of which the republic of NZ party better get more than 36 special votes if they want us to believe they have 500 members.

It looks like the most likely option for the right to have a chance is that the maori party gets 3% of the special vote and national beats labour by a bit over 3% (in the special vote) and the progressives dont get their extra seat (and neither does anyone else). enough to keep them hoping I guess.

Posted by Genius : 9/21/2005 09:23:00 PM

I presume the Electorate seats are also getting recounted. I noted that two Electorates were quite close calls for Labour. What would the effect be of an Electorate seat switching from Labour to National?

Posted by Anonymous : 9/21/2005 11:53:00 PM

If the seats swing from labour to national it would just shuffle the faces in parliment. It WOULDN'T effect the number of MPs each party has

Posted by Anonymous : 9/22/2005 12:48:00 AM

Edis: as anon points out, nothing. What determines the strength of the parties is the party vote; gaining or losing electorates simply means that a party gets fewer or more list MPs.

The obvious exceptions being Rodney Hide, Jim Anderton, Peter Dunne, and Tariana Turia - but I doubt any of their electorates are under threat.

Posted by Idiot/Savant : 9/22/2005 01:29:00 AM

Thanks. I rather thought this was the case.
It is different to the MMM system in Lithuania where a party gets to keep all the (71) direct mandate seats it might win AND a proportionate share of the 70 list seats - that is the party vote does not determine precisely the final total.

Lithuania has more of a half-way house between FPTP and the NZ system...

Posted by Anonymous : 9/22/2005 01:57:00 AM

Edis: that was one of the options we had when considering the switch to MMP. We called it "supplementary member", and recognised that it had the worst features of both systems.

Posted by Idiot/Savant : 9/22/2005 10:27:00 AM