Thursday, September 15, 2005

Local polls

The media are focusing on national-level polls and the party vote, but what about the electorate battles? We've seen polls recently for Tauranga and Epsom; here are a couple more:

  • Aoraki (Timaru Herald): Jo Goodhew (National) 36.9%, Jim Sutton (Labour) 30.9%.
  • Kaikoura (Marlborough Express): Colin King (National) 43%, Brendon Burns (Labour) 24.2%, Undecided 25.4% (MOE 4.4%).
  • Ikaroa Rawhiti (TNS): Horomia (Labour) 62%, Poananga (Mâori Party) 32%, Te Kani (Destiny New Zealand) 3% (MOE 5.2%).
  • Tainui (TNS): Mahuta (Labour) 57%, Greensill (Mâori Party) 36%, Solomon (Destiny New Zealand) 5% (MOE 5.2%).
  • Invercargill (Southland Times): Roy (National) 34.5%, Harpur (Labour) 21.4%, Carson (Green) 1.8%, Undecided ~40% (MOE 4.26%).
  • New Plymouth (Taranaki Daily News): Duynhoven (Labour) 51.8%, Irving (National) 21.6%, Brown (Green) 3.4%, Undecided 17.2% (MOE ??)
  • Otago (Southland Times): Dean (National) 36.1%, Parker (Labour) 28.3%, Pearce (Green) 3.2% (MOE 5%).
  • Clutha-Southland (Southland Times): English (National) 54.2%, Talbot (Labour) 13.6%, Mackie (NZ First) 1.8%, Guyton (Green) 1.2%, undecided 19.8%, refuse to state 7.8% (MOE 5%).
  • West Coast-Tasman (Nelson Mail): O'Connor (Labour) 38.6%, Auchinvole (National) 33.2%, undecided ~20% (MOE 4.4%).
  • Te Tai Hauauru (TNS): Turia (Maori Party) 63%, Meihana (Labour) 28%, Te Wano (Destiny) 6%, Undecided 11% (MOE 5.2%).
  • Te Tai Tokerau (TNS): Harawira (Maori Party) 49%, Samuels (Labour) 30%, Mangu (Indpendent) 7%, Morton (Destiny) 5% (MOE 5.2%).
  • Wellington Central (Dominion-Post): Hobbs (Labour) 16 points ahead of Blumsky (National), Kedgley (Green) 5%, Franks (ACT) 3%, McKenzie (United) 1% (MOE 5.7%).
  • Hamilton East (Waikato Times): Bennett (National) 56%, Yates (Labour) 22%, Woolerton (NZ First) 3%, Howard (Green) 2%, undecided 14% (MOE 5.7%).
  • Hamilton West (Waikato Times): Macindoe (National) 41%, Gallagher (Labour) 36%, Gudgeon (NZ First) 4%, Jackson (United) 2%, Moxon (Maori Party) 1%, Bains (Progressive) 1%, undecided 10% (MOE 5.7%).
  • Aoraki (Timaru Herald): Goodhew (National) 36.3%, Sutton (Labour) 31.3%, Elsen (Green) 6.1%, undecided 22% (MOE ~5%).
  • Epsom (One News): Worth (National) 44%, Hide (ACT) 30%, Nash (Labour) 20% (MOE ?).
  • Tauranga (Herald on Sunday): Clarkson (National) 42%, Peters (NZ First) 31% (MOE ~5%).
  • Whangarei (Northern Advocate): Heatley (National) 38.6%, Chalmers (Labour) 23.3%, Donnelly (NZ First) 2.7%, Newman (ACT) 1.6%, undecided 32.3% (MOE ~5%).
  • Tainui (Waikato Times): Mahuta (Labour) 51%, Greensill (Maori Party) 30%, undecided 10% (MOE 5.6%).
  • Waiariki (TNS): Flavell (Maori Party) 47%, Ririnui (Labour) 39%, Vercoe (Destiny) 10%, Davis (Direct Democracy) 1%, undecided 9% (MOE ~5%).
  • Te Tai Tonga (TNS): Okeroa (Labour) 51%, Ohia (Mâori Party) 30%, Turei (Greens) 9%, Samuel (Destiny) 5%, Caldwell (Progressive) 1%, undecided 19% (MOE 5.2%).

The Southland Times will be publishing polls of the southern electorates next week, and I'll add them soon. ACT also mentions a couple in their newsletter here. Anyone have any more?

Update: Added Tainui and Ikaroa Rawhiti; I will add more as I notice them.

Update 2: Bumped; lots of additional new data out today.

Update 3: Bumped again. Anyone seen any more polls?


DomPost will have a Welly central poll next week, just to see Marian kicking Blumsky down a staircase.

Posted by Anonymous : 9/02/2005 03:41:00 PM

Some commentary on the signifance or otherwise of these polls would be nice to help us get a handle on things.

Posted by Anonymous : 9/02/2005 10:25:00 PM

In general, electorate votes don't matter, except in critical electorates where a smaller party has a chance of escaping the threshhold (Epsom, Tauranga, Wigram), and in the maori seats, where they looked likely to cause an overhang. What matters is the party vote.

Of those posted so far: Kaikoura is a safe National seat, so no surprises there. Aoraki isn't really a traditional Labour seat, but its fall would indicate a strong comeback for National. Ikaroa Rawhiti and Tainui were expected to go Labour rather than Maori Party, but Labour has increased their lead there (and is doing better in the other Maori seats as well).

Of those coming up, Otago will almost certainly go strongly National; it was a "high-tide" seat for Labour, and they won't hold it. In Clutha-Southland, National could put a root vegetable up for election and win. Invercargill is more interesting - it should be Labour territory, but school closures have alienated the electorate, and the return of Eric Roy (a former National MP) means they will have a strong fight on their hands. It may very well go to National. But as I mentioned above, this is just fluff - it's the party vote that matters.

Posted by Idiot/Savant : 9/03/2005 12:47:00 AM

I'm amazed at Ham East being so National. It used to be considered marginal.

Posted by stephen : 9/10/2005 02:52:00 PM

National has only held Aoraki for 8 years since it is a significant closures are hurting Labour just like in Invercargill.

Posted by Michael : 9/10/2005 04:26:00 PM

School closures aren't really much of an issue in Invercargill because it is understood they were inevitable with the school-age population declining so rapidly. It's more a case of the general opinion being that it's Eric Roy's "turn". Back in the 1980s it was thought that Invercargill was a safe National seat - Norman Jones retained it in 1984 - and Mark Peck's 1993 win was quite a surprise (and mainly due to Rob Munro's incompetence). The seat could have gone either way in 1996: both politicians are considered decent blokes; a monumental gaffe on Roy's part cost him the seat in the end. When Roy lost his seat when National was annihilated in 2002 he kept on working in Southland and got a lot of respect for doing that (in much the same way that Tim Shadbolt earned respect while out of office between 1995 and 1998) and, as I mentioned, the general opinion now is very much that it's Roy's "turn".

Interestingly though there is an incredible amount of hatred locally for Don Brash. I'm no fan of the man but I've been placed in a position of having to defend him against people who have no idea about how MMP works and claim that "nobody ever voted for the bastard"...

- Dave J. in Invercargill

Posted by Anonymous : 9/10/2005 04:42:00 PM

People I talk to around Invercargill are happy to bad mouth National but I haven't heard a bad word said about Eric Roy. Opinion seems to be very divided over the schools review...I suppose it how you were affected by it. You're probably right about it being Eric Roy's turn, Dave but I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of split voting. Party Vote Labour and Candidate Vote Roy.

Posted by Michael : 9/10/2005 05:01:00 PM

With MMP we have also become so hesitant in expressing our views . . . yet the electorate polling is so reminiscent of '75 or '84 - a major swing against an out of touch incumbent

Posted by Anonymous : 9/11/2005 12:09:00 AM

I'd be quite interested to know whats up in Ohariu-Belmont. I might consider voting for the National candidate if there is any chance Peter Dunne could be dislodged thereby. I'm not any kind of supporter of National in general but I consider them the lesser of two evils.

Posted by Amanda : 9/11/2005 08:47:00 AM

I haven't seen anything yet, but I'll keep an eye out. And BTW, if you see any other electorate polls, then please email me (the munged address is on the left), and I'll add them.

As for Dunne, I have a soft spot for him, but I loathe the rest of his party.

Posted by Idiot/Savant : 9/11/2005 10:42:00 AM

Helen Clark has been to Hutt South a few times, I wonder if they're worried about it as well. I don't know if anyones done a scientific poll on the seat so we'll have to wait until 11pm Saturday to find out.

Posted by Michael : 9/11/2005 12:44:00 PM

There is absolutely NO chance that Dunne will be dislodged in OB. He has held this seat for more than 20 years. Rodney Hide has more chance of wining Epsom than Dunne has of losing his seat.

Posted by Swimming : 9/11/2005 09:24:00 PM

Dave, do you have any numbers to confirm that? It's certainly a plausible view, but I'd like to base my voting decisions on more than that.

Posted by Unknown : 9/12/2005 09:28:00 AM