In her piece in the Herald on the failure of National to gain leave to advance its Broadcasting (2005 Election Broadcasting Reimbursement) Amendment Bill, reporter Ruth Berry notes that the bill will now have to go in the ballot, and that
There is about a 3 per cent chance of a successful draw.
Not exactly. While there are about thirty bills in the ballot at any one time, giving a 3% chance of being drawn, there are usually several bills drawn (I'm expecting them to pull three or even four tomorrow, for example). And of course, there are multiple draws. The real odds can be seen in the ballot statistics: so far this year, 46 bills have been placed in the ballot, and 15 have been drawn - odds of about one in three.
(In case anyone is wondering, the odds of a bill having been covered by an In the ballot post are also good - 34 bills out of 46).